Commentary
Soybean crush hit a new record high for the month of September at 174.76 million bushels, versus the previous record of 171.06 million in 2020. Expectations were for crush at 175 million bushels, so it was a slight miss versus the average trade guess, but it landed near the middle end of expectations at (173.9-175.9 million bushels). Will these numbers tilt the scales in the bean market? Long and Shorts in January 24 beans have been slugging it out the last 10 days as January beans have traded in a 30 cents range for the most part. Weather in South America particularly in Brazil looks to get better for the drought-stricken areas this weekend into next week. That maybe one reason the market hasn’t taken out key resistance levels this week at 1321 and 1332. The flip side of any bearish argument is that Brail is low of exportable supply amid Argentina being out of beans to crush following two straight years of very little domestic production. Therefore, in my view, it’s a tug of war. Support in Jan beans is 13.02 (200 week moving average) and below that 12.95. We blow through support and its katy bar the door in my opinion down near the October low at 1254/1250. Chart attached and no new trade recommendations. WASDE report November 9th, is key and will be the last major grain release this calendar year and most important to the January report the second week of 24.
Trade Idea
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
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