Grain Spreads: The Edge of Wetness

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Massive rains are forecasted to enter into the Midwest growing areas this weekend and through most of next week. The continued rains have given thoughts to continuing planting delays for corn as the last progress report showed only 30 percent planted vs a five year average of 67. Late planting threats we discussed in Mid-April finally have begun to matter as funds who have been short over 350 K contracts, have begun to cover their corn positions while new longs enter the fray as volume and open interest increased late this week. July 19 corn rallied 41 cents from Monday’s low while new crop Dec rallied 36 cents and now sits just below 4.00. Beans are now the weakling for the time being as the gov’t is talking subsidies for bean growers similar to last year of a 1.50-1.85 per bushel. Lots of noise out there and rumor regarding trade and government assistance. Depending on planting progress corn may only be two-thirds planted by the first week of June. We may be at 50, or we could be at 80 percent by June 3rd. Weather will obviously be key the next two weeks if the planting window opens. Knee high by the 4th of July? Probably not in most areas. Late entry into the fields has finally started to matter. July corn has major resistance (green line) on chart at 388/89. The 200 day moving average is at 387. Its a big level in my view. A close over and its 398 and then 405. Support is just below at 379.4. A close below and its 375 and then possibly 368.2. The 100 day MA is 371. Then next two sessions should see some increased volatility on the charts predicated by weather events. Please join me for a free grain and livestock webinar every Thursday at 3 pm. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now

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