Grain Spreads: Technical Weakness

Sean Lusk General Commentary


Funds came out as strong sellers in soybeans to begin the week as there is a lot of noise regarding following the well published seasonal that lasts for the next two weeks in my opinion. US harvest is just beginning in the Midwest with the NASS showing 5% complete nationally.  Export inspections came in below volumes versus a year ago (390K vs .520K) and were 50% below the average at 200K lower commitments below last year. Its only the 3rd week in the new marketing year, so the declines are not too worrisome yet. Crop ratings are at 52 percent good to excellent unchanged on the week. See chart below, beans tested trendline support missing it by a penny (13.08 low) 13.07 support. This level must hold in my view, or the market could push lower to the 1290/1294 area. A close below the 200-week moving average (1290) would show further technical weakness in my opinion. Funds are long only 51K in beans and they could liquidate very easily to a neutral position on harvest pressure amid technical weakness. Corn and wheat have no demand either, so beans aside from short covering are going to need a catalyst in my view. Next WASDE report could reveal lower yields or a sub 50.0 yield (BPA), but the next report is 3 weeks away. Resistance is up at 1332/33 and last weeks close at 1340 for Nov 23 beans. My best advice is to trade the charts as we won’t have anything official on this year’s crop until Oct 12th.

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Sean Lusk

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