Commentary
Soybeans saw only a small bump today rallying 9 cents higher to close at 1341 post-Crop Progress. The trend in my view is lower amid a bearish weather forecast for at least the first half of August. Rains are scattered this afternoon and over the next couple days, but action is expected to increase Friday and Saturday with good coverage seen through the weekend, even in drier areas from Iowa north and northwestward. Soybean ratings dropped 2% g/ex to 52% g/ex overall, below 60% last year at this time and behind the 63% five-year average. Soybean blooming and pod-setting also remained ahead of comparable at 83% and 50% done, respectively. Yesterdays drop of approximately 50 cents came on a drop in open interest of over 14K contracts while managed funds liquidated 25K contracts into month end. With weak demand, rainfall chances need to miss in my opinion, for any claw back in futures towards last week’s highs. Or this market will need help from corn and wheat rallies in regards to putting in a near term bottoms on the charts in my opinion. Support for the remainder of this week comes in as follows. Support is down at 13.27. A close under and its 12.95. A close under 12.95 would push the market down to 12.82 and then the 200 weekly moving average at 12.75. Resistance is up at 13.72 then the weekly gap at 1375/79. A close over here is needed to push the market to 14.02/14.04. A close over and its 1431, (the 50-week MA), and the 100-week moving average at 14.44.
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