Grain Spreads: Plantings

Sean Lusk General Commentary Leave a Comment

Planting numbers for corn came in this afternoon at just 30 percent planted vs 59 last year and 66 percent the five year average. Will the delay mean higher prices or just more noise and a rally to sell?. The last three crop reports from the USDA have been nothing but bearish for corn as ending stocks have been raised while demand has been diminished. While all eyes have been on the trade war with China, it should be noted that South America particularly Brazil and Argentina have grown a bumper corn crop, some 18 (Million Metric Ton’s)better than last year. It’s a sizable surplus year on year and gives thoughts of increased competition where sizable world buyers notably China and our second biggest corn buyer Mexico, can opt for South American origin. Demand drives price but with our crops going in the ground albeit at a snails pace, supply side driven fundamentals should eventually drive price at this time of year. The American farmer can plant in lightening speed once fields dry out, lets see if early May delays strike funds to short cover some positions. December corn chart below and in my view 371 needs to hold on a close or the market could retest the lows at 363. A close over 384 which is where we closed the 1st quarter, and we could rally to 397, which is where we closed 2018. Please join me for a free grain and livestock webinar each Thursday at 3pm central. We discuss supply, demand, hedge and speculative ideas and of course weather.Sign Up Now

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