Commentary
November soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $13.86 3/4 and near the session low after an early rally to 14.01. December soybean meal dipped $1.70 to $410.20 near the middle of the range. Midwest weather forecasts remain unrelenting in my view through mid-week next with no real chance to escape hot and dry conditions now up into the first week of September. Despite that the bean market took a breather today as end of month profit talking came in after an overnight/early morning rally to 14.00. In my view I wouldn’t be surprised if funds bid back the market into the 3-day holiday weekend especially if the Midwest and Plains remain hot and dry in the 6–10-day forecast. That said, we will have a key crop report on September 12th and a potential acreage adjustment at the end of September. So, we should see some profit taking into the WASDE report especially if November beans leg higher and trade up to the 1425-1445 area. Remember harvest is coming soon. I think one more run could be coming as there are a lot of whispers that we could have a SUB 50 soybean yield that would verify Pro Farmers 49.7 yield last Friday. Where does that leave ending stocks? Brazil is still selling into China this Fall, taking an increase in market share away from US origin. Lower yield could be met with lower demand numbers from USDA. Watch for one more potential rally in beans prior to harvest.
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