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Commentary
It is my belief that due to nearly ideal spring weather and coming forecasts are weighing heavily on grains. The USDA reports that corn plantings are 40% finished versus expectations of 41%. The 5year average is 39% for the week. The weather outlook leaves an ample planting window for utilization over the next 10 days. The US producer in my opinion is a light seller with the end user for now holding back on chasing supplies. Soybean plantings move forward without disruption as the USDA reports the US producer is 30% finished with his intended area this week vs 31% estimated by the analysts and vs 23% the five-year average. The Argentine government reported the most recent week’s farmer soybean sales at 1.21 MMT, the highest weekly pace of the season. Good weather and more competition from South American origin is weighing on old crop prices in corn and beans. Also, we have no further news regarding a resolution between the US and China and their trade war. Outside of something else entering onto the market like a trade deal that includes US ag purchases, we have the May WASDE report on Monday at 11am Central. The report is traditionally one of the biggest of the year, because it provides the first look at the agency’s domestic and global balance sheets for the new marketing year, the 2025-26 marketing year. That then sets the tone or the foundation for the growing season market, from which it will make adjustments amid weather dynamics and demand. I’m watching where the USDA sees ending stocks for both. Will they factor in tariffs? Ending Stocks from the AG Forum in February put Beans 330 million while corn was back over 2.053 billion bushels. Lots of variables here to consider, but make no mistake, my advice is to avoid the noise, weather and its impact on future yields will rule.
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Sean Lusk
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