Grain Spreads: Nuked Wheat

Sean LuskGeneral Commentary

Commentary

Wheat futures exploded in all classes today with the rally coming on a few fronts. First, crop ratings for Spring wheat declined by 2 points in the good to excellent category as number one producer North Dakota, which represents approximately 51 percent of the Spring wheat crop lost 9 points in the good to excellent category. The weather story of too dry in North Dakota has spread to Canadian provinces as well as European growing areas experiencing sever drought in my opinion. Second,  Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of planning to attack the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, though the U.N. nuclear watchdog said it had yet to see indications of mines or explosives at the plant. The risk of a nuclear accident in my view unsettled short positions in the market amid a wave of short covering today. The trade in my opinion had become immune in its reaction to Russian threats to quit a Black Sea initiative allowing Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea. Technical levels for the remainder of the week come in as follows for Chicago wheat. Resistance is first at 6.85. A close over and next resistance is the 200-week moving average at 6.98. A close above these levels and things get interesting and could push the market to the 7.32/7.43 area. Support is first at 662.  A close under and its back to the 6.32/6.28 area in my opinion.

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Sean Lusk

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