Grain Spreads: KC Wheat

Sean Lusk General Commentary, Grains


The major news this week and what the Trade was watching in my view was the deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports was extended for 120 days from Nov. 19 without any changes. United Nations officials told Russia they were “fully committed to removing remaining obstacles to exporting food and fertilizers” from the country, though there is no deal yet to export of Russian ammonia via a pipeline to the Black Sea. This came after a rogue missile hit Poland, a NATO member, in what was thought to have originated from Russia, perhaps putting the extension at risk. For me it was a buy the rumor sell the fact event as the missile originated from Ukraine, which soothed tensions and eventually selling opportunity in wheat. USDA rated 32% of the winter wheat crop “good” to “excellent,” up two points from the previous week. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” declined two points to 32%. As of Nov. 15, dryness/drought covered 83% of Colorado, 90% of Montana, 89% of Texas and all of Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and South Dakota. In my view the big reason for the poor conditions. That said, its early, but the fear should it remain too dry over winter, will be very cold temps in these areas that are without snow cover/ moisture. Technical’ s for March 23 KC wheat come in as follows. Support for Kc wheat is at 9.25.  A close under and its 8.91, then 8.81. If we get a run over 9.25, resistance is up at 9.51 and then 9.64. A close over 9.64, and KC wheat could re-test 9.85.

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