Commentary
Turkey’s President this morning announced the extension of the Black Sea grain export deal for two months, past tomorrow’s deadline, after the last remaining ship left Ukraine’s ports yesterday as inspections ticked lower this month due to safety concerns. Russian officials confirmed the agreement but continue to note issues with their own exports and global food security. Corn futures under pressure throughout the night and day session as funds continue to press the market lower. This isn’t without reason in my view, as last Friday’s report showed prospects for a sizeable jump in US carryout at over 2 billion bushels are probable during this growing season. While trade contemplates potential for one to two million prevent plant acres in the Dakotas, the rest of the Corn Belt is in very good shape in my opinion with timely plantings and favorable long-term weather forecasts. For wheat, Chicago futures came under pressure following news that Russia had agreed to extend the Black Sea Grain Deal. This was set to expire on Thursday, and once again the negotiations led up to the last minute before getting an extension. This has been a recurring theme regarding the ongoing renewals of this Grain Deal. Meanwhile, KC wheat futures followed with a weak close after posting new near-term highs overnight. The rally was short lived, as KC wheat fell from 9.18, the morning high to close down at 8.85. The worry regarding winter wheat and the early bullishness faded as the Wheat Quality Tour makes its way through Kansas. Tour findings were in my view worse than expected, and expectations were pretty pessimistic. Plenty of abandonment comments echoing throughout, and the trade will be watching future acreage estimates closely in my view. But for the winter wheat producer, where is demand coming from in the near term with the Black Sea open? Algos sold the headlines today as not only was the extension of the Black Sea deal seen as bearish. The fact that China cancelled another old crop corn purchase.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Please join me for a free grain and livestock webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.