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Commentary
Corn continues to drive higher as managed funds defend their positions on breaks while amassing a sizable net long position. Money managers ended 2024 with a net long in corn futures 228,806 futures & options contracts, their most bullish view since February 2023. Both new longs were added and shorts exited in the latest week, but the former was more prominent. While big crops coming are likely coming out of Brazil, forecasts are turning hot and dry in Argentina which in my opinion is spurring the fund buying spree. The Rosario Grain Exchange said in a note that two main growing areas, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe had seen just 1.23 inches of rain below the average of 4 inches for December. After a wet Spring, this shouldn’t be a big issue in my view. However, it only takes one person to scream fire in the theater and all go running out. Funds are acting in a similar fashion here but forecasts of hot and dry remain deeper into January where the concern lies amid the unknown. This is setting up to be a boon potentially for US producers that have unpriced bushels in the bin as deferred corn could hit 4.80 soon in my opinion. Argentina is the World’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third largest exporter of corn. We are at key areas of resistance in March corn the most actively traded contract. We closed 2024 at 4.58. Key trendline level comes in at 4.56 through next week in my view. We need to hold that level to sustain the momentum in my opinion. Should that happen, look for funds to press above the Bollinger band at 462 and chase this market to 482 (5 % higher on year) and the 100-week moving average. Consecutive closes under 456 through next week could punch the market back under 450 with the next significant target at 4.35 and then the 50-week moving average at 429. With over 228K longs here, if weather turns wetter in Argentina through January, I would anticipate a pullback forthcoming.
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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