Commentary
The week heading into 4th of July saw December Corn hit 611.2. Then the market dropped 1.04 to 5.07 last week. A fifty percent retracement took the Corn market to 559, which was hit and surpassed the last two sessions. Today’s settle saw corn flip 12 cents from the high to end the day lower at 552.0, Dec 21 ended up 35 cents on the week. A move back to hot and dry is possible in the corn belt the next two weeks which has put sellers on the sidelines for now. I think the strength in Spring wheat and beans did more for corn than projected weather forecasts the last ten days of July. To me it’s a follower as needed July rains have shown up. However, weather can still hurt this crop and the forecasts can flip flop in a hurry. July is generally regarded as the most critical weather month for the corn crop, but August is also crucial as the crop fills. If forecasts calling for hot temps the final two weeks of July materialize, timely rains will be needed next month in my opinion. Given the tight supply outlook for the 2021-22 marketing year, a lot rides on how this year’s crop produces in my opinion This is one reason why we have seen expanded daily and weekly ranges and I look for it to continue as we move through the growing season. I’m just watching levels here as seen on the weekly continuous chart. Initial support is first at 5.32. Key support is 5.14/5.16. A close under and I thin we could take out last weeks low and move to the 50 day moving average at 4.98. A close under and we go to 4.78/4.84 area in my opinion. Resistance is up at 559/560. A close over and its 574/75. A close over 580 which is the (20 percent threshold higher on year), takes the market to 6.02. 6.02 is the Mother of all resistance. A close over it and we could see an extension significantly higher in my opinion.
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