Commentary
March futures’ modest gain this week could signal that a short-term bottom was forged earlier this month. Time will tell. A stronger-than-expected weekly export sales number seemed to confirm buying interest on price dips. But the bigger export picture remains bearish, with U.S. commitments so far in 2022-23 down 48% from 2021-22. Moreover, the macroeconomic outlook grew cloudier in my opinion after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments rattled financial markets. Argentine weather leans price-supportive but isn’t concerning enough yet to justify extended rallies. Barring a major market-moving event, price action is likely to be sideways in light trade through year-end and potentially into the January 12th crop report. Technical levels for next week come in as follows. Support is just below this week’s settlement at 6.52. A close under could retest last week’s low at 6.35. A close under 6.35 and 6.28 and then 6.23 could be seen. Resistance is at 6.62. A close over and the market could rally to the 6.83/85 area. A close over 6.85 and next resistance is 6.92.
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