Commentary
The grain market gets its first look at the much anticipated 11 am planting intentions report and on farm stocks. The USDA in its last quarterly planting intentions report threw the trade a major screwball with the planted acreage number for corn and beans. It was one reason why new crop corn and beans traded significantly higher all of April and the first two weeks of May. From then profit taking set in amid an overbought condition and once June arrived, crop conditions eased in some areas due to beneficial rains. The rains over the last few weeks have aided the Eastern belt for sure as states like Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are showing promising conditions and potential bin buster yields in those areas. The problems as shown in this weeks crop ratings show issues in Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas. Recent rains have benefited half of Iowa so far, but stress remains in some areas. It’s the have’s and have not’s in those states. Tomorrow the trade pushes the weather aside and will focus on updated changes to the new crop acreage and run potential outcomes for future balance sheets. Then its right back to trading weather. Assuming the market comes in within the range of expectations, I look for the market to bend back then buy the dip into the 4th of July weekend. My opinion here. If however updated weather runs into this weekend show a cooler and wetter forecast into July, especially into the NW quadrant that has been beset by drought, the path of least resistance is lower in my opinion. Lots of moving parts here. Pre reprt estimates below per Reuters and USDA.
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