Commentary
The soybean and meal markets traded sideways with a lack of fundamental input to the complex in my opinion. May soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents at $11.81 1/2 and near the session low. May soybean meal closed up $2.90 at $336.00 and near mid-range. May bean oil fell 99 points at 47.90 cents and near the session low. Export inspections continue their seasonal decline. The USDA reported 480K were loaded last week vs 680K this time a year ago.
Brazil’s bean harvest advanced to 80% complete last week vs 82% a year ago. Argentina’s soy harvest is just beginning with the Buenos Aires grain exchange report logging 2% progress. Good to excellent ratings of Argentina turned 1 point higher to 30% G/E. This is better than the disaster crop a year ago where the crop was rated less than 5% good to excellent. Volatility should pick in my opinion later in the week as both USDA and CONAB give their April Supply Demand updates on Thursday. Cheaper soybeans in Brazil are capping any boost in US exports. Funds hold a sizable short at 138K of beans, 43K of meal, and have gone long 7500 bean oil, their only long on the grain board.
Technical levels for May beans come in as follows. Support is at 1178. A failure to hold and its 1168. Closes under 1168 and the market tests 1140. A close under 1140, and its katy bar the door to 15% down for the year at 11.04. Key resistance is 12.22. A close over and the market could retest 1234 and 1240. A close over 12.40 and the market could run to the gap at 1291/97.
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