Commentary
November soybeans also erased an overnight rally that pushed November 22 futures above 14.80 in early AM trading to ultimately settle 4 cents lower to close at 14.57. It is my belief that profit-taking emerged following the market’s climb to two-month highs. Prices gained initial amid concern dryness will curb yield potential in parts of the Midwest. Results from day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Tuesday suggested soybean yields in Nebraska and Indiana may trail last year’s. In Nebraska, soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,063.72, down from both 1,226.43 in 2021 and the three-year Tour average of 1,245.06. In Indiana, soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,165.97, down from 1,239.72 in 2021 but above the three-year average of 1,148,26. Demand has picked up in my opinion. USDA earlier today reported a sale of 517,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year. A day ago, USDA announced a soybean sale of 110,000 MT for delivery to China during the 2022-23. The declining crop condition report released Monday night from USDA showed crop ratings for beans that are 3 points lower than the 10-year average in the good to excellent category. Coupled with a pickup in demand from China have buoyed the market this week in my view as the drought in central China causes significant damage to their crops in my opinion. No trade ideas in this post. Resistance for November soybeans at 14.62, with next resistance at 14.77, which is the ten percent higher for year threshold. A close above that and I could see the November soybeans rallying to 1536, which the 50 percent retracement from the Spring highs to the July low. Support is at 14.06 and then thee 100-day MA at 13.98. Under that key support is 1381 this week. A close under that level and its katy bar the door until 13.24 in my opinion.
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