Commentary
The WASDE momentum, US acreage buy-in, and Argentina’s weather issues lifted soybean futures to their highest levels since June on the weekly continuous chart in my opinion. Despite a weaker crush number yesterday, we saw funds buy the dip and rally beans and meal into the close and overnight session. The US crush number from NOPA fell 5.4 million shy of all trade guesses for December. NOPA reported its membership crushed 177.5 million bushels in December. This puts NOPA crush at 699 million vs 704 million a year ago. Lots of crop scouts looking at Argentina’s forecast as cooler and significantly wetter next week. In my opinion, that had fund unwinding longs after three days of rally following the January supply/demand report. We also had reversal action in the Dollar while $3.00 break in crude futures from the AM rally. I attached a weekly continuous chart. The market was able to hold the 50-week moving average today, which is support in my opinion at 15.21. Should this level hold, next resistances this week are 1540 and then today’s high at 15.48. We close over 15.48/15.50 basis March beans, we rally to 16.00 in my view, which is 5 percent higher for 2023. However, should we not hold 15.21, look for the market to retest trendline support at 14.91 and then 14.81. A close under 14.81, and its katy bar the door to the 5% down for the year threshold at 14.48.
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