Commentary
In my opinion funds are actively selling soy complex futures amid pressure from sharp losses in the crude oil market and the commodity sector as a whole. The outside market pressure is overshadowing preparations for Thursday’s Prospective Plantings Report, which is expected to show soybean seedings of 88.7 million acres, per Reuters. That would be up from 87.2 million acres planted last year. On Farm March 1 soybean stocks are expected to total 1.902 billion bu., which would be up from 1.562 billion bushels last year. The range is from 1.532 to 1.965 billion bushels. May soybeans traded as low as $16.22 after reaching $16.73 overnight, and closed down 21 cents at 16.43. Brazil’s soybean basis dropped 11 cents per bushel over the weekend. Brazil holds onto its advantage over US offers and can land soybeans in China 20 cents per bushel cheaper in May. China’s crush margins remain robust enough that it can buy US soybeans over Brazil and still clear a material profit in my opinion.. Brazil’s soybean crop is 75% harvested vs 69% last year. Yesterday US exporters announced a sale of soybeans of 132 K tonnes sold to China for the old crop season. This follows three days of sales into China from last week, (Tues, Weds, and Friday). Coming into today, Chicago wheat is up 1.09, KC up 102.6, Minneapolis up 70 cents. Corn is up 52 cents, Soybeans up 31.2, Soy-meal up 30.3 and Soy-oil up .84. Comments early this morning from a Russian official during the Ukraine/Russia cease-fire talks helped to send corn and wheat futures sharply lower today, and in my view soybeans followed. I believe that the market and computer driven programs used the potential cease fire news to book profits today given the month and year to date performances in the grains for the first quarter. Lets see where we are at going into the weekend to determine if we are still in a buy the dips mode going into April.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Please join me for a free grain and livestock webinar every Thursday at 3pm Central time. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
312 957 8103
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604