Commentary
Crop conditions came in as expected this week with corn unchanged on the week at 53 percent good to excellent while beans were down 1 percent to 52 good to excellent. Beans drop was highlighted by number one producer Illinois losing 8 points in the good to excellent category while top 5 producer Nebraska lost 5 points in the good to excellent category. Other producers of note for beans had number 2 producer Iowa down 1 point, Missouri down 4 points, and North Dakota down 8. Are these ratings enough to push national yield below 50 and even below 49.5 bushels per acre, which is the most bullish of estimates heading into tomorrow’s crop report from USDA. (WASDE) Beans are being harvested at a rapid pace in the last ten days as producers are moving at a rapid pace to beat the heavy wind and rains that engulf much of the Midwest and Great Lakes in the 1-to-5-day forecast. Beans are at 43 percent harvested as of this past Sunday, up 20 percentage points on the week, 2 points higher than last year, and up 6 from the 5-year average. U.S. soybean exporters inspected 38.1 million bushels this week with 29.7 million of that headed to China. The original report released earlier today showed 60.4 million bushels of soybeans inspected. The USDA later published a corrected report. For the 2023/24 marketing year, the U.S. has inspected for export 111.1 million bushels of soybeans. Brazil origin soybeans undercut US offers by $.40 per bushel in the spot market landed China. No flash sales to any destination announced today. Inside the soybean complex, further liquidation of the oil share trade is buoying the meal while sending bean oil to its lowest values since June. The average trade guess for tomorrow’s report has ending stocks for beans at 223 million bushels with a range of 206 on the low and 271 million on the high. Last month ending stocks at 220 million. Yield is projected to come in at 49.9 BPA versus 50.1 last month with a range of 49.5 to 50.4. The average trade guesses barely budge from last month. Again, not sure if the good to excellent decline in some major producers shows up in tomorrow’s numbers or next months, or sometime next year, if at all?
Trade Idea
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