Planting progresses as producers race to get corn, beans, and spring wheat in the field expanded last week vs expectations while winter wheat condition slightly improves. Corn came in at 62 percent planted vs a five year average of 63. However some trouble spots remain with a sizable lag in planting remaining in Wisconsin (30% planted vs 5 year average at 46%), Minnesota(40% vs 65%), and South Dakota (21% vs 61 %). These areas bear watching in the weeks to come as further delays could spark further noise about producers switching to beans. Given this weeks numbers I think the worst fears could be behind us regarding planting delays as major producers led by Illinois are almost finished. Bean plantings came in at 35 percent vs a five year average at 26 percent. Spring wheat even gained nicely coming at 58 percent planted versus a five year average at 67, gaining 28 points on the week. Even winter wheat condition gained on the week by 2 percentage points to 36 percent good to excellent. Weather worries about plantings and condition should abate somewhat following todays report.
Soy meal led the soy complex higher today as meal gained 9.00 short tons to close at 387.6. Today’s high was 389.6, just missing the key weekly resistance at 389.9. Watch this level in my view. A weekly close over and 406.7 could be seen. If that happens I would not be short beans. However a close below 384.6 this week and the market could fall down to 373.8. July beans found support at 10.03 and bounced past first weekly resistance at 10.16, to close just above it at 1017.6. Minor resistance sits at 1027 and then 1048.6. As always watch meal. KC wheat basis July looks like it wants to fill a gap at 4.96, with first support just above it at 5.02. A close below 4.96 and its down to 481.2 in my opinion. A close over 534.4 is needed to turn it higher and change the trend. Corn gained on both wheat classes today as it settled unchanged while KC and Chicago fell. It was interesting to note that funds went long in Chicago wheat as of Tuesday May 8th to the tune of 4K contracts. This represents a switch from short to long. However since then I would suspect they re -shorted as July Chicago wheat has fallen hard since last weeks crop report and looks in peril for a move all the way down to 474, if it cant bounce from here soon. Look to be a seller of July Chicago wheat vs corn if wheat closes below 493.2 this week. I think this spread tightens from 95 cents down to 81 wheat over corn.
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