Soybeans–
Trade deal talks are still ongoing with many key countries as deadlines are approaching. A deal was recently made with South Korea, while Canada faces 25% tariff on its exports to the U.S. if they fail to come to an agreement by tomorrow. Earlier today, the White House announced Mexico would have an extra 90 days to negotiate a deal with the U.S. India is another important trading partner that has yet to strike a deal with the U.S. The trade deals that have been completed haven’t done much for the grains thus far. December soybean oil closed at 54.75, down 1.36. December soybean meal closed at 276.3, up 1.80.
Exports for the week ending July 24, were 409k mt, which is 93% of the USDA estimate. The 5-year average for exports, this time of year, is 91%. Top export destinations for soybeans were Egypt, the Netherlands, Mexico, Japan, and Saudi Arabia.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 961 (-6), high of 972, low of 960. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 989 (-6), high of 1000, low of 995. Cash price is at 987 (-3)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 261.8 (+1.1) high of 263.1, low of 258.9
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 55.58 (-0.92) high of 56.95, low of 55.33
The August Meal to Oil ratio (48.51% Meal – 51.49% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (979) 5-day, (1006) 20-day, (1032) 50-day, (1033) 100-day, (1036) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (985) 5-day, (1001) 20-day, (1019) 50-day, (1018) 100-day, (1022) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (263.4) 5-day, (268.9) 20-day, (282.8) 50-day, (292.6) 100-day, (303.2) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (56.53) 5-day, (55.29) 20-day, (52.40) 50-day, (49.59) 100-day, (46.93) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 22 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 21,412 contracts to their bringing their net short to -10,866 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -19,646 contracts bringing their net short position to -101,647 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -13,480 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,273 contracts, moving to a net short position of -129,743 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,960 contracts bringing their net short position to -34,832. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -78,416 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 55,326 contracts after buying 12,105 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 86,179 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 394 (+2), high of 394, low of 388. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 413 (+1). Cash price is 414 (+2)
December corn closed at 413 3/4, up 1.50 cents. Corn exports are the strongest, for this period of the year, since 2021. In 2021, China was a major buyer of U.S. corn and was the main reason exports were so strong. Comparing that to this year, China is buying no U.S. corn, with buying coming from a slew of importers. It is possible that some of the unknown purchases are China. Today President Trump announced a 90-day tariff deadline extension for Mexico. Mexico is the top buyer of U.S. corn. The next areas of support in September corn are 3.75 and 3.60.
Exports for the week ending July 24, were 1.52 mt, which is 88.8% of the USDA estimate. The 5-year average for exports, this time of year, is 79.9%. Top export destinations for corn exports were Japan, Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, and Panama.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (393) 5-day, (400) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (427) 100-day, (437) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (414) 5-day, (418) 20-day, (430) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (444) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,610 contracts bringing their net position to -177,365 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 12,062 contracts bringing their net position to -28,232. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -199,643 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 523 (-0.50), with a high of 525, low of 516. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 542 (-1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 497 (-6). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 526 (+4).
Wheat closed just .25 cents higher today in the September contract. The wheat chart shows a strong down trend. The funds still have a large short position and world supply is very large. Domestic exports have been strong, however most of the exports were booked at a time when the dollar was continuing to weaken. Now the dollar is going back up and the Black Sea region is finishing up harvest, therefore they will now compete with the U.S. for wheat sales.
Exports for the week ending July 24, were 288k mt, which is 14.3% of the USDA estimate. The 5-year average for exports, this time of year, is 13.6%.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (530) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (549) 50-day, (557) 100-day, (577) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (550) 5-day, (561) 20-day, (571) 50-day, (579) 100-day, (596) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -52,041 contracts, having decreased their short position by 8,446 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,882 contracts to bring their net short position to -1,123 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -65,351 contracts.
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