Crude Oil- Did we just race up in price to this olive line sell level $61.00-ish? Are extremes in vertical price thrusting higher to produce my red diamonds? See chart. This is something if bearish to keep a close eye on. April CLJ is $61.00-ish +/_ 12c. We are over now, watch back under maybe.
The olive line is my study on human behavioral science and how this indicator hooks humans into giving up, leaving the trade alone, due to complacency which seems like it applies to me.
Anyway this is something to pay attention to. You don’t sell it now if a timer and I have a few other rules depending on one’s trader profile for risk. New high stop in any event and we may come back and look at again as crude tries to hook new 2018 investment money. Perfect really and just like before last year.
Bonds- Macro speaking- 5 year notes hitting 6 ½ year lows or highs in 5 yr interest rates. Ten years 123 15-ish last and we do have a few olive buys if you dare, everybody out of pool under 122.00 for sure to me. US dollar, a bounce off that area that just missed support under 91.50.
Is the Govt shutdown a real threat? I think it is the 19th.
Coffee 125 ish- Buy a sharp break again 122, 121 ish?. 131.08 was some small olive sell and it is not goofing around when they fail. 121.00 ish start some support going down in this sloppy action. Cocoa- Support cited mid 118.00 small olive 1837, may have missed by a tick last week, We are breaking out to upside. I would not be short and if bullish we have some lines today.
USDA report later this week. I’m leaning on buying a bearish report and let’s see what wheat has in it. WHCH buy down at +92 OLB support now up about 20 cents on ratio. Corn down 4c 347 a hair off old low last time down. Is this water Board of Trading to longs? No comment other than if you need a level give me a call although no rush to be long here, olb are lower.
Hogs- Hogs are over resist levels so no shorts over HEQ 84.00 or closer months. Feb weaker and barely over 7440. There will be better signals so let’s not waste energy in this complex now. Live cattle- Steep loses in live, 117.11 a level, next is 200 lower in my book, LCJ and June have support lines slightly below. Feeders buy levels lower of this stronger of the batch.
Best Always,
ARP