FRIDAY MIDDAY RADAR
The afternoon radar shows moderate showers and storms over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota and are now moving into southwest Wisconsin. The short range models show that a second area of showers and storms will be increasing over central and northeastern Iowa during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms could become severe and NWS has issued an ENHANCED threat risk for severe weather over northeast Iowa …southern Minnesota …southwest Wisconsin and northwestern and northeastern Illinois. In terms of actual rainfall for far eastern, north eastern areas will see 2-3 inches of rain but most of north central Iowa will see rainfall amounts under 1.5″/ 38mm.
SUMMARY
With regard to the midday GFS and Canadian models the rainfall patterns are unchanged from this morning. The best rains will continue to fall over the southern half of Minnesota …central and southern Wisconsin …far northwest Illinois …the northeast 25% of Iowa and a good portion of Kentucky, Tennessee and Ohio. Some of the rains will be in the 2-4″/ 50-100mm inches especially over southern Wisconsin. Most of Iowa over the next 5 days will be dry and this shows up on all the model data including the Canadian and the GFS ensemble. This is also the case for the southern portions of Illinois …northern Missouri …and most of Nebraska and South Dakota.
6-10 DAY = the operational GFS model is rather wet across large portions of eastern South Dakota, northwest …central …and southeastern Iowa … eastern Missouri …much of Illinois and Indiana. The GFS model shows it to be a 1-3″/25-75mm rain.
The midday Canadian model has the same sort of rain shield but it is displaced to the north. As a result it has 1-4″/25-100mm rains over the southern half of Minnesota …the southern half of Wisconsin …southwest Michigan …northern and northeastern Indiana and most of Ohio. There are some areas of moderate rain over 40% of Iowa with amounts up to 1.5″/38mm and 30% of Illinois and Missouri but the Canadian does not show a significant rain event like the midday GFS for 6-10d.
The GFS ensemble is much more like the Canadian model as it keeps most of the rain further to the north and northeast out of the heart of the WCB and out of Iowa.
11-15 DAY = In the 11 to 15 day there is a general rainfall 0.5-1.0″/ 12-25mm across much of the WCB but the best rains appear to be from Interstate 80 southward and mainly over eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and into the Southeastern states.
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