MODELS RAINS SHIFT NORTH IN 1-5 DAY … 6-10 DAY VERY UNCERTAIN
1-5 DAY = The afternoon radar shows the remains of Harvey still bringing moderate to heavy rains to Houston metro area and all of southeastern Texas with additional bands of rain over eastern and southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. But this system is breaking down steadily.
The main issue remains what is going to happen to the remains of HARVEY over the next several days. All the weather models take its core moving through Mississippi into Tennessee… Kentucky … then up into West Virginia … western Pennsylvania… and eventually into New York State. This track will bring significant rains to the eastern half of Arkansas …the southeast 25% Missouri …the southeast 25% of Illinois… all of western and central Tennessee and central and western Kentucky. Rainfall amounts will range from 1.5-7.0″/ 38-175mm of rain depending on the location. The heaviest rains fall over northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. Obviously this will have some impact on the soybeans and the cotton in these areas.
The remains of HARVEY will bring significant rain on Saturday into the Middle Atlantic region but for the Plains as well as the WCB the next five days look to be dry and seasonal.
DAY 1 TO 5 GFS RAINFALL next 5 days
6-10 DAY = Obviously the next big story has to do with the threat of an early frost after Labor Day. As we talked about before this pattern or a massive trough has been showing up on the weather models for several days — probably more than a week. The issue remains whether not this is actually going to be a frost or frost scare.
When I use the term FROST SCARE I am referring to the overall perception that there is going to be a frost or could be a frost and when the data is marginal – that is to say temps on the models really do not drop below 35° over any significant portion of the Midwest or the Plains. In other words a frost scares something that looks good or impressive on the weather models but in reality it does not really verify.
That maybe we are looking at here. These four images show the MIN temperatures from the midday GFS model for September 6 … September 7… September 8 … and September 9.
On the morning of September 6 there are a lot of temperatures in the low 40s over Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin but no readings below 40°.
On the morning of September 7 again temperatures over a Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota are still in the fifties. There’s a small area over Northern Minnesota where temperatures are in the upper 30s and there are some readings in the 40s over the ECB. Again the temperatures are not cold enough to support a frost.
On September 8 the only location which sees temperatures in the mid or upper thirties is over central and northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
And finally on the morning of September 9 we do have some temperatures in the mid 30s across the northeastern half of Iowa …most of Minnesota … and most the Wisconsin.
These areas could experience a frost on the morning of September 9. Other areas see temperatures in the low 40s across the rest of the WCB and ECB – which is chilly but nothing too extreme and certainly not cold enough to support a frost
12-16 DAY = Finally the model data shows the deep trough over the Midwest breaking down the pattern turning substantially warmer after September 11 or 12.