For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, October 21, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
November Feeder Cattle gap opened lower and made the high at 375.70. This was just above the key level at 375.075, leaving a gap from Thursday’s low at 379.10. President Trump’s announcement the night before that he wants beef prices lower so he has made a deal to get those prices lower set off a firestorm in the futures market taking prices down the limit in the Feeder Cattle market to the low at 371.70. It settled down limit so we will have expanded limits on Monday in the cattle markets. Prices were limit down from November through the deferreds as longs liquidated positions as the uncertainty grew throughout the day as there wasn’t any information forthcoming from the administration on the details of his “deal” to lower beef prices. Guesses are being made that he will lift quotas and tariffs on Argentine beef or Brazilian beef or both. He met with the Argentine President and will soon meet with Brazil’s President. The President wants to reduce food inflation so he is likely looking at increasing imports in the short run while supporting domestic production for the long run. Cash prices seemingly didn’t follow the futures lower as feeder sales looked strong on Friday. Hopefully, we get some clarity next week. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at the rising 13-DMA now at 369.50 and the nearby key level at 369.375. Support then comes in at 365.675. If price stabilizes, we could consolidate within the Friday range.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 376.51 as of 10/16/2025.
December Live Cattle gap opened lower and rallied to close the gap at the high at 246.475. The rally stalled just above the Thursday low and then broke down to the low at 241.40. It drifted into the close and settled at 241.825. The collapse in price took cattle to just below the prior all-time high price for the lead contract at 242.075, wiping out the recent run to new highs in one session. The recent rally took price to an all-time high price at 248.30, established so long ago it seems… yesterday! Some profit taking was due as we were headed into the weekend but, the President’s announcement without any details sent the Feeders crashing to limit moves to the downside taking the Live Cattle with it although the lead contract didn’t touch its limit. The deferred contracts settled a tick above the down limit in some months. The breakdown in Feeders will put expanded limits on the Live Cattle market even though it didn’t get to that point. The cash market didn’t respond to the breakdown in futures as the Friday live market saw prices from 238.00 – 241.00 which saw a higher low price than Thursday. The packers needed the cattle and paid to get them under their control. Slaughter was 20,000 higher than last week as recent load counts has been exceptional as cutout prices relaxed, probably forcing the packers’ hand. This was higher than expectations so they probably will need more product going forward to fill their orders. Weight gains can only go so far, in my opinion, they still need cattle and show lists were lower so even with crashing futures they paid to play. R-Calf put out a statement to the government urging the President to address the fundamental problems in the beef market, not just its symptom. We need more information from the President on what he intends so producers and traders can figure their next course of action. We’ll see!… A failure from settlement could see price test support at the rising 13-DMA now at 240.475 and the nearby down sloping trendline at 240.375. Support then comes in at the downward the rising 21-DMA now at 238.825. Support follows at 238.125. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 245.125. Resistance then comes in at 246.975.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 0.66 to 366.77 and select increased 1.34 to 350.27. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 16.50 and the load count was 188.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 92,000, which is above last week’s 91,000 and below last year’s 107,085. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 9,000, which is below last week’s 10,000 and last year’s 13,646. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 567,000, which is above last week’s 547,000 and below last year’s 607,284.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 statesSo far for Friday, negotiated cash has been active on good demand in all feeding regions. Compared to two weeks ago, live purchases in the Texas Panhandle have been 7.00 higher at 240.00. Compared to last week, live purchases in Kansas have been 5.00 higher at 240.00. In Nebraska, compared to Thursday, live purchases have been unevenly steady from 240.00-241.00, mostly 240.00. Compared to last week, dressed purchases have been 10.00 higher at 372.00. In the Western Cornbelt, compared to Thursday, live purchases have been unevenly steady from 239.00- 240.00, mostly 240.00. Compared to last week, dressed purchases have been 10.00-10.50 higher from 372.00-372.50.The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 235.00 – 241.00 and from 370.00 – 378.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall not be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.