As of Wednesday morning, 21 October 2026, the energy complex is weaker following reports of potential Russian return to talks, even in light of inventory draws in crude and gasoline inventories, each in excess of 3 million barrels; crude 3.1 million barrel draw and gasoline 3 million barrel draw, from this morning’s EIA report.
As of this writing, crude oil WTI, RBOB Gasoline and Heating Oil NY Harbor Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel are all trading lower on the day, with crude and gasoline down about 1% and Heating Oil NY Harbor Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel down about 3.5%.
Traders also should note, pictured below, that the December crude contract continues to hold above the September 15th high of $96.41, which could be a critical level to keep an eye on.
In addition to the crude oil and gasoline inventory draws and potential return of Russia to talks, the Diesel market has also seen news this week of Russian exports being added to the market as well as announced subsidies in America for farmers amid harvest season and diesel strength.
Depending on timeframe and risk tolerance, there are a number of ways to position for these developments. For the time being, on a short, intraday timeframe, the Russian return to talks is fundamentally bearish, with current price action confirming. However, over longer timeframe, should the $96.41 previous high continue to act as support and/or should geopolitical tensions flare up ahead of elections, continued bullish price action could be foreseeable. Reports of changes to Starlink and the recent changes in Russian Diesel exports and diplomacy are particularly of note going forward.
Some options strategies may look to position for a breakout from these levels and take on risk in order to profit from significant volatility.
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