Gold traded modestly higher finishing up $4.40 for Tuesday’s session settling at 1258.4. This was a few dollars below a key target area for technicians; the 200 day moving average at 1261.6. The rally comes a day after another horrible terror attack this time in St. Petersburg, Russia and economic data that was released today that missed expectations. However the push higher wasn’t enough to push above key technical levels and the yearly high up at 1264.9. There’s a few reasons for pause here before any potential new highs are made in my view. First, investors will be watching closely the meetings between Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and President Trump this week. Second FOMC minutes from the March meeting are to be released tomorrow afternoon at 1:15 central time. Lastly, the March unemployment data will be released Friday morning. Given gold’s recent inability to take out new highs or the 200 day moving average, I look for some potential back and fill on the charts. This premise assumes that nothing else geo-politically enters the market ahead of the Fed minutes release, or the unemployment report. As far as the Fed minutes are concerned, I’m looking for commentary on inflation expectations or lack thereof that may lay clues on how hawkish the Fed maybe in regards to future rate hikes. I will have pre report trade estimates for the non farm payroll number later in the week.
Technical’s read like this: Support comes in the remainder of the week for June 17 gold at 1252.4 and then down at 1240.6. A close under here takes the market down to 1229.5. Resistance is at 1264.9, and with a close over 1275.3 and then 1288.