The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 61.05 (+0.15) [+0.25%], high of 62.07, low of 60.12. Spot price is 61.51 (+1.34) Open interest for CLM25 is 290,785. CLM25 settled above its 5 day (60.51), below its 20 day (65.88), below its 50 day (67.68), below its 100 day (68.87), below its 200 day (69.58) and below its year-to date (69.10) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 64.88 (+0.12) [+0.19%], high of 65.90, low of 64.04. Spot Brent price is 64.78 (+1.37). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (64.27), below its 20 day (69.65), below its 50 day (71.35), below its 100 day (72.48), below its 200 day (73.58) and below its year-to-date (72.69) moving averages.
Last Friday’s COT report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/11/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -184,638 (a decrease in short positions by 10,964 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +169,107 (a decrease in long positions by 16,415 from the previous week)
China’s crude oil imports rose in March, up nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by a surge in Iranian oil and Russian shipments, according to data released Monday. Imports hit 12.1 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since August 2023, based on Reuters’ analysis of customs data. This was up from 11.55 million barrels per day in March 2024 and 10.38 million barrels per day during the January-February period. For the first quarter overall, crude imports reached 10.97 million barrels per day, down 1.5% from the same period last year.
OPEC reduced its forecast for oil demand growth for the first time since December in their monthly report, OPEC now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels a day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels a day for 2026. This is down from 1.45 mb for 2025 and 1.43 mb a day for 2026. OPEC’s report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 barrels per day to 41.02 million. A source told Reuters on Monday that Kazakhstan’s oil output fell in the first two weeks of April from the March average, but was still above the OPEC+ quota.
Goldman Sachs projects oil demand will increase by 300,000 barrels per day between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025. The bank now predicts WTI to average $59 per barrel this year, Brent crude to average $63 per barrel. This is down from Goldman’s previous estimates of an average price of $66 for WTI and $69 for Brent in their 2025 price forecast. Goldman also reduced their global demand forecast for Q4 2026 by 900,000 barrels per day.
The Keystone pipeline is still offline after a spill last Tuesday caused a shutdown. South Bow Corp. said they expect to resume operations by April 15th. On a daily basis the Keystone XL pipeline carries about 626,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
Tomorrow the International Energy Agency will release their monthly Oil Market Report.
Last week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration data for the week ending April 4, showed U.S. crude oil inventories increased by +2.6 million barrels from the previous week, above forecasts of a +1.4 million barrel build, to a total of 442.3 million barrels, which are about 5% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 277,000 barrels per day from the prior week, and 6.9% less than the same four-week period last year. U.S. crude refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 69,000 barrels per day more than the prior week. Refineries operated at 86.7% capacity. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels per day, down -1.9% from the same period last year. Total commercial petroleum inventories expanded by +1.2 million barrels last week. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub had a build of +636,000 barrels. This marks the second week in a row of an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs decreased by 9 rigs, to a total of 480. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 97. Total rig counts declined for the third consecutive week.
SPX: 5,405.97 (+0.79%) DIJA: 40,524.79 (+0.78%) NDX: 16,831.48 (+0.64%) DXY: 99.72 (-0.38%)
FTSE100: (+2.04%) DAX: (+2.96%) CSI300: (+0.23%) HSI: (+2.40%) NIKKEI: (+1.18%)
Price Thoughts – After hitting four-year lows last week crude oil has been trading in a short-term crude between $63 and the $59 handle in the front months for WTI, while Brent has traded in a range of $65 and $61. Over the weekend U.S. and Iranian officials discussed Iran’s nuclear program, if this continues to progress there’s the potential we could see sanctions come off, but in my opinion this is still in the very early stages. Other weekend news that the U.S. would exempt tech related tariffs on Chinese goods provided a bit of support on the macro level as well. Again the dollar index crept lower, to its lowest level in three-years against its peers.
Technically short-term resistance is $63, above that $65. New short term support is in the low $59 to $58 range, below that there’s support in the $56 handle. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly U.S. EIA reports to a lesser degree.
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Jim Rinaudo
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