If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Soybeans–
The July WASDE report held no major surprises. New crop carryout was raised 15 mb. The USDA lowered new crop exports by 70 mb and raised crush 50 mb. Stocks/use is now 7.1% for new crop soybeans. The average farm price is $10.10 per bushel. Weather will be important to watch in August for soybean development. Any weather changes would be welcomed by bullish traders as weather has been non-threatening so far. The tariff drama has not helped soybeans with global supply still very large.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1001 (-3), high of 1009, low of 994. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1007 (-0.25). Cash price is at 998 (-8)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 267.7 (-2.6) high of 271.9, low of 267.1
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.17 (+0.42) high of 54.30, low of 53.11
The August Meal to Oil ratio (50.98% Meal – 49.02% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1009) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1045) 50-day, (1039) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1010) 5-day, (1034) 20-day, (1034) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1031) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (274.8) 5-day, (283.5) 20-day, (293.5) 50-day, (300.3) 100-day, (308.6) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (53.76) 5-day, (53.59) 20-day, (50.69) 50-day, (48.20) 100-day, (46.14) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 1st showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -23,023 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 425 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,209 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,591 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 2,771 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed meal Managed Money traders sold -21,858 contracts, moving to a net short position of -131,938 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,331 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,397. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -87,896 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 39,411 contracts after selling -4,908 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 63,772 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 400 (+4), high of 401, low of 391. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 418 (+5). Cash price is 424 (-3)
On Friday, the USDA lowered ending stocks for new crop corn more than expected, along with a lower estimate for old crop and world ending stocks. Despite the overall friendly report corn failed to move higher. With the favorable weather, there is concerns about how high yield could go. It’s still early to make exact predictions on the yield but many analysts are expecting to see increased yield on the August WASDE report. Empire Weather did mention the potential for derechos in the upper Midwest on the latter half of July/early August. If severe weather does materialize this could provide some support for corn as it tries to find a bottom.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (398) 5-day, (411) 20-day, (422) 50-day, (435) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (415) 5-day, (427) 20-day, (437) 50-day, (446) 100-day, (446) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that corn Managed Money sold -24,181 contracts bringing their net position to -206,463 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 34,649 contracts bringing their net position to -26,531. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -214,077 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 541 (-3), with a high of 551, low of 538. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 562 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 522 (-9). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 523 (-1).
On Friday, the USDA raised all wheat production 8 mb above the June estimate to 1.929 bb. Old crop carryout was increased from 841 mb in June to 851 mb. Yield was raised by 1 bpa, while new crop exports were also raised. HRS conditions are still well-below average making the yield increase a surprise. Last week, Black Sea FOB markets saw a jump in prices. RUS 12.5s gained $5/mt to $231/mt. A higher price in the Black Sea region should be supportive of prices domestically if it can stay strong.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (547) 5-day, (554) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (565) 100-day, (584) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (567) 5-day, (575) 20-day, (573) 50-day, (587) 100-day, (603) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 1st showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -63,071 contracts, having decreased their short position by 1,596 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,579 contracts to bring their net long position to 10,630 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -76,571 contracts.
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.