Soybeans–
The December WASDE came out this morning. It was a quiet report for soybeans on this report. Yield was left unchanged at 53.0 bpa. New crop production was kept unchanged at 4.253 bb. Ending stocks are still estimated at 290 mb, at no change from November. World ending stocks were increased from 122 mmt to 122.4 mmt but that was below the average estimate at 122.7 mmt. Soybeans reacted negatively to the report, with an initial move lower to 1084 3/4 before coming back slightly the rest of the day. It was reported that Argentina is lowering their export tax for soybeans and meal and soybean oil. The soybean export tax will be reduced 2 points to 24%. The export tax on meal and oil fill also be reduced 2 points to 22.5%. The decision to lower the export tax should create more selling pressure. Next year, soybean acres are expected to rise nearly 4 ma to 85 ma, which could bring production as high as 4.465 bb. Ending stocks for 2026/27 are estimated at 314 mb.
January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1087 (-6), high of 1094, low of 1084. March ’26 Soybeans (ZSH26) settled at 1098 (-7), high of 1106, low of 1096. Cash price is at 1065 (-12)
January Bean Meal (ZMF26) settled at 301.3 (-5.0) high of 307.2, low of 301.2
January Bean Oil (ZLF26)) settled at 51.02 (-0.16) high of 51.41, low of 51.83
Meal to Oil ratio (54.475% Meal – 45.525% Oil)
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1104) 5-day, (1125) 20-day, (1089) 50-day, (1066) 100-day, (1053) 200-day
ZSH26 Moving Averages – (1114) 5-day, (1135) 20-day, (1100) 50-day, (1080) 100-day, (1063) 200-day
ZMF26 Moving Averages – (307.5) 5-day, (317.9) 20-day, (304.7) 50-day, (296.8) 100-day, (301.7) 200-day
ZLF26 Moving Averages – (51.47) 5-day, (51.35) 20-day, (50.94) 50-day, (52.03) 100-day, (50.31) 200-day
CORN –
March ’26 Corn settled at 448 (+4) (ZCH26) high of 449, low of 443. May ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 455 (+4). Cash price is 435 (+1)
Corn had a positive reaction to the report this morning. Corn was up 2 1/2 cents in the overnight session. Yield was kept unchanged from November at 186.0 bpa. Production was also kept unchanged at 16,572 bb. Exports were increased from 3,075 to 3,200. Due to the increase in exports, ending stocks are now estimated tighter. Ending stocks are estimated at 2,029, compared to 2,154 in November. Corn is still trying to break the resistance at 450. It seems likely that corn will rally in the coming days and weeks beyond 450. The January report could see a further reduction in yield, since it didn’t happen on this report. Acreage is expected to be 3.7 ma lower in 2026/27 at 95 ma. Next year’s yield is estimated at 182 bpa. Next year’s ending stocks are estimated at 2.019 bb. 2026/27 exports are estimated at 3.0 billion versus 3.075 currently.
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (445) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (441) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (447) 200-day
ZCK26 Moving Averages – (452) 5-day, (452) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (445) 100-day, (456) 200-day
WHEAT –
March Chicago Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 534 (-0.25), with a high of 537, low of 531. May ‘26 Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 542 (-0.20). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 535 (-1). March KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 527 (+0.50).
It was also a very quiet report day for wheat, similar to soybeans. There were no changes made to the domestic balance sheet. Yield was kept unchanged at 53.3 bpa. Production is estimated at 1,985 bb. Ending stocks are unchanged at 901 mb. All wheat production was raised from 828.89 mmt to in November to 837.81 mmt. It’s not surprising to see production rising with bumper crops in Canada and Australia. In addition, to higher production in Ukraine. World ending stocks are now estimated at 274.87 mmt from 271.43 previously. Early forecasts for 2026/27 are out. US wheat acreage is estimate at 44 mmt from 45.3 mmt. Yield is estimated at 50.8 bpa. And wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecasted tighter at 832 mb.
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (543) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWK26 Moving Averages – (544) 5-day, (551) 20-day, (547) 50-day, (554) 100-day, (583) 200-day
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