SOYBEANS –
Soybean planting is at 76% as of 5/25, up 10% over last week. Planting is well ahead of schedule with the 10-year average for this time of year being 63%. Of the 18 major states, just KY (-5%), MS (-7%), and OH (-10%) were all lagging their respective 5-year averages. The national crop was 50% emerged, ahead of the average at 40%. Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Datagro raised its 2024/25 soybean production estimate to 172 million metric tons, up from 171.2.
Soybean oil has been the highest performing commodity in the grains and the second-highest performing commodity overall year-to-date. Soybean oil is up +22% year-to-date. Managed money reduced their position on the latest COT report, but soybean oil could still move higher with any biofuel news from the White House. The funds are at a record short in meal, and the funds decreased their soybean position to the least bullish in 6 weeks.
Looking at technicals, support is at 1044, resistance is 1067.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1048 (-14), high of 1064, low of 1047. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1037 (-13). Cash price is at 1048 (+3)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 293.7 (-2.6) high of 297.2, low of 293.3
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 49.93 (-0.64) high of 49.85, low of 48.61
The July Meal to Oil ratio (54.56% Meal – 45.44% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1049) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1049) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1025) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (295.8) 5-day, (294.8) 20-day, (298.3) 50-day, (306.4) 100-day, (312.4) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (49.36) 5-day, (49.36) 20-day, (47.63) 50-day, (46.39) 100-day, (44.58) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -25,753 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 12,654 contracts. CIT traders were net long 157,869 contracts after increasing their already long position by 6,032 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -18,873 contracts, having increased their short position by -27,822 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 31,510.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -4,721 contracts, moving to a net short position of -107,466 contracts. CIT traders were net long 76,190 contracts after decreasing their long position by -1,955 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short 90,785 contracts after increasing their long position by 4,511 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 64,844 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed Managed Money traders were net long 57,309 contracts after selling -10,123 contracts. CIT traders were net long 138,397 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders net sold -6,751 contracts, to a net with a total of -97,536 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 71,573 contracts.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 451 (-8), high of 463, low of 450. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 443 (-3). Cash price is 466(-unchanged)
Corn is at 68% good/excellent, which is the lowest initial crop conditions rating in six years. North Carolina leads the way at 83% good/excellent followed by Iowa, Ohio had the lowest crop rating at 41% good/excellent. Ohio is 37% off it’s 3-year average, Iowa is 4% above its 3-year average.
Corn exports for the week ending May 22 were 1.396 mmt. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 46.9 mmt which is 29.1% above last year. Exports are 71.1% of the USDA’s forecast compared to the five-year average of 64.6%. Top buyers were Japan, Mexico, and Columbia.
Support 450, Resistance 468 in July corn
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (458) 5-day, (454) 20-day, (467) 50-day, (479) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (449) 5-day, (444) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed that corn Managed Money traders reduced their position by -18,234, bringing their net short to -103,210 contracts. CIT traders decreased their net long position by -19,329 contracts to a long position of 313,094 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -3,408 contracts, to a net short position of -189,799 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -97,678.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 530 (+1), with a high of 535, low of 526. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 545 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 528 (-11). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 525 (+1). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 603 (+7)
The Chicago wheat market closed below the 50-day moving average for the fourth straight day. More rain is expected in the plains as subsoil moisture begins to improve. China is seeing rains in the forecast again, which is helping improve drought conditions. HRS conditions are at 45% good/excellent, well below expectations. HRS was up 7 cents today in the July contract.
Wheat export inspections for the week ending May 22 were 560k mt. Inspections for the year are at 21 mmt which is 16% above last year. Exports are at 95.3% of the USDA’s forecast compared to the five-year average at 92.1%. Top buyers were South Korea, Indonesia, and Venezuela.
Managed money reduced their net short positions by 18k contracts on Friday to a total net short of -80k contracts.
July Chicago wheat support is at 525, resistance is at 536, 548.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (539) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (545) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (579) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (554) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (560) 50-day, (578) 100-day, (592) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (533) 5-day, (527) 20-day, (555) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (584) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (602) 5-day, (595) 20-day, (605) 50-day, (614) 100-day, (627) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -80,162 contracts, having decreased their short position by 18,002 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 39,071 contracts, increasing their long position by 2,055 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -99,289 contracts after net buying 16,24- contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -105,792.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com