Soybeans–
Soybeans closed slightly lower today, after trading 4 3/4 cents lower in the overnight session. Harvest is picking up, now estimated at 60% complete. China has record high soybean stocks sitting in their ports. With China deciding to import so many soybeans from South America, China’s grain prices are trending lower. You’d think at some point Chinese soybean farmers would be unprofitable. This is something to keep an eye on. Brazil’s planting is estimated at 14% complete, which is the 3rd fasted pace on record. CONAB estimates Brazil’s new crop soybeans at 177.64 mt, compared to 177.67 mt in September. The pre-report estimate was 179.0 mt.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1006 (-1), high of 1009, low of 1001. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1024 (-1), high of 1027, low of 1018. Cash price is at 966 (+1)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 274.3 (+0.2) high of 275.9, low of 273.2
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.57 (-0.03) high of 50.68, low of 49.72
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.03% Meal – 47.97% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1014) 5-day, (1017) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1029) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1031) 5-day, (1035) 20-day, (1045) 50-day, (1044) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (275.7) 5-day, (277.4) 20-day, (284.3) 50-day, (289.9) 100-day, (301.5) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.71) 5-day, (50.42) 20-day, (51.76) 50-day, (52.21) 100-day, (48.95) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 413 (+2), high of 413, low of 409. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 429 (+2). Cash price is 391 (-2)
Corn traded 2 cents higher today, after trading close to unchanged overnight. Reuters estimates harvest is 44% complete. After favorable harvest weather thus far, rain is expected in the western belt and central Midwest this week. Into the weekend, the forecast shows chances of rain for the eastern Corn Belt. CONAB estimates Brazil’s new crop corn at 138.60 mt, compared to 138.28 in September. The pre-report estimate was 141.3 mt. AgRural estimates Brazil’s planting pace at 45% complete. Corn open interest increased by 16,000 contracts yesterday, while Friday saw an increase in open interest of 22,000 contracts. Both days with increasing OI came on red days, indicating new shorts in the market. Corn needs to continue to hold 400, which may be difficult as trade tensions and headline risk are currently elevated.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (415) 5-day, (420) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (422) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (431) 5-day, (437) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (438) 100-day, (452) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 500 (+3), with a high of 501, low of 492. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 516 (+3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 467 (-8). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 488 (+7).
Wheat traded modestly higher, after a 4 cent slip in the overnight session. Wheat is sitting right on the psychological support level at 500 and it can’t seem to make up its mind whether to bounce or sink lower. Global supply pressure continues to be the dominant force in the wheat market. Open interest increased by 9000 contracts yesterday, suggesting funds added to their short position. There’s no COT reports due to the government shutdown. Reuters estimates US winter wheat sowing at 66% complete, while Ukraine’s winter wheat is estimated at 62% sown. More increased production estimates are coming in around the world. The French Ag Ministry estimates SRW production at nearly 4.5% above the 5-year average. Argentina is also expected to have a record crop.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (501) 5-day, (513) 20-day, (521) 50-day, (545) 100-day, (572) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (518) 5-day, (531) 20-day, (539) 50-day, (563) 100-day, (590) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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