Soybeans–
It was a solid day for November soybeans, closing up 19 cents. Exports sales were strong this morning. Soybean oil finished up +2.32, while soybean meal closed -3.40 lower. Illinois and Western Iowa showed particularly favorable yields, with Illinois seeing the highest pod count on record. The next 2 weeks are expected to be cooler in the Midwest. China’s US bean imports from the US are down 11% y/oy. China has been buying soybeans from Brazil. The next resistance for November soybeans is 1064.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1034 (+19), high of 1035, low of 1011. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1056 (+20), high of 105, low of 1032. Cash price is at 1008 (+2)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 296.8 (+4.8) high of 297.1, low of 290.8
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.64 (+2.44) high of 53.92, low of 51.14
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.53% Meal – 47.47% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (1021) 5-day, (994) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1041) 5-day, (1014) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (288) 5-day, (278.1) 20-day, (280.2) 50-day, (290.8) 100-day, (301.9) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (52.59) 5-day, (53.94) 20-day, (53.82) 50-day, (51.08) 100-day, (47.55) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 30,660 contracts bringing their bringing their net short to -35,270 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,786 contracts bringing their net short position to -86,016 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -36,686 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,283 contracts, bringing their net short position of -109,309 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -20,576 contracts bringing their net short position to -49,768. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -57,084 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 44,412 contracts after selling -10,527 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 67,300 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 387 (+7), high of 389, low of 379. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 411 (+7). Cash price is 391 (+0.50)
Similar to what was found with soybeans, corn yields look above average in Illinois and Western Iowa. However, some crop disease was found. The Pro Farmer crop tour is scheduled to conclude on Friday. Temperatures are expected to be cooler for the Midwest in the extended forecast. Some of the greenhouse-like weather that has been persistent this summer is starting to dissipate. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina corn plantings are 9.6% higher to 19.2 ma. Unsurprisingly, yesterday’s quiet trading day saw a reduction in open interest by 11k contracts. Corn has shown strong support since the August WASDE report to stay above 400. The NCGA mentioned that Brazil’s 18% tariff on US ethanol is unreasonable. A trade deal with Brazil would be bullish.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (382) 5-day, (384) 20-day, (399) 50-day, (418) 100-day, (433) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (406) 5-day, (406) 20-day, (418) 50-day, (433) 100-day, (441) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,364 contracts bringing their net position to -176,114 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -5,345 contracts bringing their net position to -30,872. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -195,710 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 507 (+1), with a high of 507, low of 502. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 529 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 475 (+9). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 503 (+2).
The trend on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts for wheat still looks bearish. Wheat was slightly higher today. Yesterday’s rally in wheat came with a drop in open interest, signaling shorts were being covered. Big crops are still expected around the world, although LSEG left their US, Canadian, and Australian forecasts unchanged. The Canadian crop is at some risk due to heat. In the EU, the French harvest could see delays to recent heavy rainfall.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (504) 5-day, (514) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (546) 100-day, (568) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (526) 5-day, (535) 20-day, (557) 50-day, (567) 100-day, (588) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 12 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -89,295 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,526 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,136 contracts to bring their net long position to 22,446 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -90,622 contracts.
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