The USDA’s Ag Forum starts tomorrow, and the trade is prepared to receive the government’s best unsurveyed guess of acreage and yield for the coming year in the US. The average trade guesstimate puts the acreage at 90.9 million corn acres and a yield of 179.7 bushels/acre. 90.9 million acres would be a buying of 2.3 million acres versus last year. That increase most likely emerges from the far reaches of the corn belt or fringe areas of SD, ND, KS, and NE as lost acreage due to prevent plant and drought could claw back this season in my opinion. The US dollar index extended gains following the FOMC minutes released this afternoon. Minutes showed that all voting members of the Federal Reserve backed a 25 BPS hike at the last meeting with a few members favoring a 50 BPS hike. Extended gains in the US dollar index may continue to put pressure on corn futures. It is my belief that wheat and soybean weakness weighed heavily on corn futures throughout the session today, pushing corn down into support. Though buyers stepped in toward session lows, preventing further breakdown where selling likely accelerates below last week’s low. Technical levels through next Friday for May corn come in as follows. Consecutive closes under 6.78 could push the market down to 6.61. A close under 6.61 could push the market to 6.45, which represents 5 percent down for the year. Underneath that level is 6.41, the 100-week moving average. A close under 6.41, and its Katy bar the door down to 6.11, (10 percent down for year). To turn bullish, the market needs to close back over 6.82. Should that happen the next level of resistance is at 689.0, the 50-week moving average. A close over and the next level of resistance is 7.12, (5 percent higher for year), and then up at 7.28, the top end of a gap that has never been filled.
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