Soybeans–
The recent trade deal announcement with South Korea mentioned further exports of U.S. beef and rice, however there was no mention of soybeans or corn. Other than Japan, there has been a lack of Ag related announcements as part of these trade deals. The market has been underwhelmed with trade deal progress as the soybean market has not seen any type of meaningful bounce on trade news. Yesterday, Mexico was granted an extension of 90-days with tariffs paused. India will be hit with a 25% tariff starting today. Looking at technical, November soybeans have support at 983 and 975. Resistance for soybeans is at 998 and 1014.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 964 (+2), high of 965, low of 962. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 988 (-1), high of 994, low of 986. Cash price is at 953 (-6)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 267.5 (+5.7) high of 263.1, low of 261.6
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.72 (-0.86) high of 55.47, low of 54.42
The August Meal to Oil ratio (48.51% Meal – 51.49% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (972) 5-day, (1001) 20-day, (1030) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1035) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (999) 5-day, (1013) 20-day, (1028) 50-day, (1025) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (263.3) 5-day, (268.4) 20-day, (282.3) 50-day, (292.2) 100-day, (302.9) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (56.18) 5-day, (55.30) 20-day, (52.50) 50-day, (49.71) 100-day, (46.99) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 22 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 21,412 contracts to their bringing their net short to -10,866 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -19,646 contracts bringing their net short position to -101,647 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -13,480 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,273 contracts, moving to a net short position of -129,743 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,960 contracts bringing their net short position to -34,832. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -78,416 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 55,326 contracts after buying 12,105 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 86,179 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 389 (-4), high of 396, low of 388. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 410 (-3). Cash price is 417 (+2)
There will be another WASDE report in a couple weeks. Analysts have been debating where yield could end up, with plenty of mixed opinions. Looking at historical reports in August, the USDA raised yield in 6 of the last 10 years. For the 6 years the USDA raised yield, the average yield increase was 3.73 bushels. The biggest yield increase was 2016, when yield was raised 7.1 bushels to 175.1. On the July report, the USDA estimated yield at 181. Weather has been favorable for corn growers, but the last 15 days have had very solid rainfall in the Midwest. Rain makes grain, but some are thinking there may have been too much rain causing crop damage.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (391) 5-day, (398) 20-day, (413) 50-day, (427) 100-day, (436) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (412) 5-day, (417) 20-day, (430) 50-day, (439) 100-day, (444) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,610 contracts bringing their net position to -177,365 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 12,062 contracts bringing their net position to -28,232. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -199,643 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 516 (-6), with a high of 526, low of 516. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 537 (-5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 497 (unchanged). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 518 (-7).
Wheat was down 6 1/2 cents today in the September contract. SovEcon reported that Russia’s southern wheat crop may be the lowest since 2020. The southern region is the number 1 wheat-growing area in Russia and where the majority of its exports come from. Ukraine is also supposed to have poor crop, at 11.36 mt. Argentina’s wheat crop is almost fully planted. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 79% of the crop is developing under adequate moisture conditions, at 97% normal/excellent. Planting was at 84% normal excellent at this time last year in Argentina.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (526) 5-day, (539) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (556) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (546) 5-day, (559) 20-day, (570) 50-day, (578) 100-day, (596) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -52,041 contracts, having decreased their short position by 8,446 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,882 contracts to bring their net short position to -1,123 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -65,351 contracts.
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