Soybeans–
Temperatures will be higher in the near-term but looking ahead to next week they shift back to normal in the Midwest. The soybean growing areas still needing to finish up planting stretch from parts of Kansas, across Missouri, and into Illinois. The Ohio River Valley and Eastern Corn belt area has been dealing with wet weather as well.
Soybean oil is starting to slowdown following the news about mandates. Soybean oil closed down .17 cents today.
Looking at technicals, there’s a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern developing in July soybeans. The inverse head and shoulders pattern is bullish.
NOPA crush on Monday was 192.829 mb, the trade estimate was 193.52. Despite the report number being lower than the estimate, it was the highest-ever total for May on record.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1074 (+0.75), high of 1079, low of 1069. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1068 (+0.50). Cash price is at 1051 (+5)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 284.9 (-0.2) high of 287.5, low of 283.8
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 54.77 (-0.02) high of 55.29, low of 54.26
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.74% Meal – 49.26% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1066) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1052) 50-day, (1049) 100-day, (1048) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1055) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1033) 50-day, (1033) 100-day, (1034) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (291.9) 5-day, (297.5) 20-day, (298.9) 50-day, (305.1) 100-day, (312.1) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (52.58) 5-day, (49.11) 20-day, (48.89) 50-day, (47.04) 100-day, (45.22) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 17,038 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 25,639 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,367 contracts bringing their net short position to -160,854 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 43,994 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 9,909 contracts, moving to a net short position of -86,808 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -9,212 contracts bringing their net short position to -62,105. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -50,495 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed Managed Money traders were net long 24,768 contracts after selling -7,222 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 40,033 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 433 (+2), high of 434, low of 430. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 444 (+5). Cash price is 456 (-9)
The South is starting to begin early pollination, while the majority of growing regions will reach the pollination stage in the second-part of July. China’s corn imports are down 93.7%. As South America finishes up harvest, now is the time of year where their imports start ramp up. The U.S. will be competing with Brazil in Argentina to make grain sales.
The EIA said production averaged 1.109 million barrels per day, 11,000 lower than the previous week’s all-time high, but 52,000 higher than a year ago. Ethanol stocks came in at 24.12 million barrels up 386,000 on the week and 503,000 on the year.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (436) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (459) 50-day, (472) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (447) 50-day, (452) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that corn Managed Money sold -9,977 contracts bringing their net position to -164,020 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 24,108 contracts bringing their net position to -78,344. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -171,062 contracts.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 574 (+25), with a high of 575, low of 547. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 590 (+25). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 552 (+12). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 571 (+23). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 646 (+15)
The wheat market is starting to catch some attention with wider war taking off in the Middle East. Wheat is known as the “political grain” and it has taken part in some of the volatility seen in other commodities affected by geopolitics. The funds did some short covering on Friday, but there is still a very large short position being held in wheat. Short covering is expected this week.
France said that its SRW exports are at the lowest in 28 years. Russia issued a grain state of emergency due to dryness in Krasnodar. Wheat could test the $6 highs made in February, in the next couple months.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (546) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (540) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (576) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (561) 5-day, (556) 20-day, (555) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (589) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (543) 5-day, (537) 20-day, (541) 50-day, (570) 100-day, (581) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (631) 5-day, (619) 20-day, (609) 50-day, (617) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 10th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -94,011 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,561 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,184 contracts to bring their net position to 34,095 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -95,234 contracts.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
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Toll Free 800-993-5449
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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