SOYBEANS –
Planting pace is at a rapid 66% compared to 48% a week ago and 50% a year ago. The average planting pace for this time of year is 53%. The states furthest behind in planting, the southeastern and eastern corn belts, are expected to see some rain. Rain is causing flooding in South America which large production losses expected in Argentina as they wrap up harvest. If it was a huge problem, we would have likely seen soybeans rally much higher on this news a few days back. If there is any news regarding US and China trade it could move the grains markets higher in a hurry. Regardless, June trading will rely heavily on the weather.
Looking at technicals, support is at 1056, resistance is 1067.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1062 (+2-2), high of 1067-4, low of 1052-6. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1051 (+11). Cash price is at 1038 (+2-0)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 294.1 (+1.5) high of 294.4, low of 291.5
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 49.83 (+0.33) high of 50.30, low of 49.50
The July Meal to Oil ratio (54.14% Meal – 45.86% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1053) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1040) 50-day, (1048) 100-day, (1046-0) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1040) 5-day, (1035) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (293) 5-day, (295) 20-day, (299) 50-day, (307) 100-day, (313) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (49.42) 5-day, (49.50) 20-day, (47.06) 50-day, (46.05) 100-day, (44.41) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed soybeans Managed Money traders added 16,537 contracts to their long positions, bringing their net long total to 38,407 contracts. CIT traders were net long 151,837 contracts after increasing their already long position by 4,864 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net long 8,949 contracts, having increased their long position by 18,226 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders added 10,978 contracts to their already long position, bringing their net long total to 55,785 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed meal Managed Money traders were net short 24,716 contracts, moving to a net short position of 102,745 contracts. CIT traders were net long 78,145 contracts after increasing their long position by 1,616 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short 90,785 contracts after increasing their long position by 4,511 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of 61,809 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed Managed Money traders were net long 67,432 contracts after buying 10,694 contracts. CIT traders were net short 146,624 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders net bought 11,455 contracts, shifting their position from net short to net long with a total of 7,827 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 8,173 contracts, raising their net long position to 83,812 contracts.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 461 (+6), high of 462, low of 453. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 455 (+7). Cash price is 461 (+7)
Today, the EIA came out with ethanol production at 1.03 mb per day, up 43k from the last report, and higher by 17k over last year. Ethanol stocks came in at 24.944 mb, down 501k from last week. The EIA puts ethanol stocks at their lowest levels since January, yet up 732k from a year ago. Ethanol exports for the week were 94k barrels a day, 20k less than last week, but up 11k over last year.
Corn is at an estimated 78% planted compared to 62% a week ago and 67% last year. The average planting pace for this time of year is 73%. With planting nearing completion, the rain in the forecast is positive for crop development.
The USDA has Brazil’s crop estimate at 130 mt, other analysts have 129 and lower. Brazil is facing a bird flu outbreak, which could limit domestic feed use. Argentina is facing flood loss from heavy rains. The US dollar is lower again which is beneficial for exports, although no trade deals have been announced.
Looking at the summer high for the past 17 years in the December corn contract, it has occurred:
Support is at 445, resistance is 479 in the Dec contract.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (451) 5-day, (459) 20-day, (468) 50-day, (479) 100-day, (461) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (440) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed that corn Managed Money traders reduced their position by 98,869, bringing their net short to 84,976 contracts. CIT traders decreased their net long position by 24,375 contracts to a long position of 332,423 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders net bought 11,118 contracts, shifting to a net short position of 310,352 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders reduced their net long position by 95,320 contracts, leaving them with a net short position of 85,224 contracts.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 549 (+3), with a high of 556, low of 545. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 563 (+4). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 538 (+17). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 540 (+4). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 604 (+7)
Chicago wheat had a close over the 50-day moving average today showing that the upside might not be over with. The wheat market still has several bullish factors driving the market. The US dollar was lower again today. Kansas still has crop disease affecting production. And weather problems continue out east with China facing drought and Russia experiencing frost in the Rostov region. Another huge factor is the number of shorts in this market. Funds were record short on the year in Chicago wheat and in KC.
A close over 565 in July wheat would be a good sign for those hoping to see this market head higher.
July Chicago wheat support is at 536, resistance is at 565.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (565) 100-day, (580) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (550) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (563) 50-day, (579) 100-day, (593) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (528) 5-day, (529) 20-day, (561) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (585) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (588) 5-day, (595) 20-day, (606) 50-day, (615) 100-day, (628) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short 126,895 contracts, having increased their short position by 13,161 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 37,016 contracts, though they increased their long position by 2,469 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short 115,529 contracts after net selling 11,369 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were also net short, holding 119,198.