For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, May 27, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
July Lean Hogs is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the June contract. It opened lower and rallied to the high at 102.325. The rally took price past the key level at 101.975and it couldn’t maintain the early strength. It turned lower and broke down to the low at 100.75. The breakdown took price to the rising 8-DMA on the continuous chart now at 100.675 where it bounced off of into the close and settled in the middle of the range at 101.55. Hogs continued it downward lean in the July contract despite strong exports on the Thursday report and continued improvement in the cash markets. China came back into the pork market in a big way, coming in second place with 7,800 MT purchased. This is a positive for the pork market and could be a reason we are seeing the cutout challenging the 100.00 level. Traders seem to be hesitant in taking July higher as futures are well above the cash index despite the strength it is showing. With the Memorial Holiday coming, long liquidation likely took place as expectations are for a dip in demand after the holiday. This could keep pressure on futures if the cash markets peak and turn lower. We’ll see!… If Hogs can hold settlement, it could re-test resistance at 101.975. Resistance then comes in at 104.35. A failure from the 8-DMA) could see price test support at 100.075. Support then comes in at the rising 21-DMA now at 99.50.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 100.40 as of 05/22/2025.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 92.75 as of 05/21/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 424,000, which is below last week’s 466,000 and last year’s 440,915. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 10,000, which is below last week’s 20,000 and last year’s 12,172. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 2,362,000, which is below last week’s 2,400,000 and last year’s 2,371,081.
August Feeder Cattle opened lower and made the low at 298.675. The open tested support at the rising 8-DMA now at 298.40. Price reversed and rallied to the high at 301.125. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled at 300.375. The rally took price past resistance at 299.90 and the 13-DMA now at 300.00. It closed most of the gap from the May 14th low at 301.325 to the May 15th high at 300.80 leaving a .20 gap in place. Traders were able to maintain strength in the Feeders as the Mexican Screwworm is making its way north and the US is keeping Mexican cattle out of the US keeping supply limited for Southern feedlots. The Cattle on Feed Report was also due after the close and traders will be interested to see if the expected lag in placements took place in the South. The small “growing” feedlots in Texas (as one producer called them) are not full and feeling the pinch from the lack of Mexican supply. This is making owners anxious and more aggressive in their pursuit of cattle. I am told the supply just isn’t there and it is worrisome. The Cattle on Feed numbers are below. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at the rising 8-DMA. Support then comes in at 297.80. A rally past the high could see the gap closed. Follow through to the upside could see resistance tested at 301.90. Resistance then comes in at the May 13th low at 304.325.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 295.46 as of 05/22/2025.
August Live Cattle opened lower and made the low at 209.65. The low tested support at the declining 8-DMA now at 209.60 and then turned higher. It rallied to the high at 210.925, stalling just below resistance at 210.975, consolidating the rest of the session, settling at 210.45. The market drifted in front of the Cattle on Feed report which as we know was due after the close. Traders seem to be reluctant to push August higher despite the cash market trading cattle at last week’s all-time high in the North. The cash market made a new all-time high on a dressed basis at 370.00. Traders were not impressed and the market stayed within Thursday breakout trading range forming an inside candlestick. Traders seem wary of the cash market holding its strength after the Memorial Holiday and likely want to see if there was strong beef demand over the holiday. Exports continue to sag with China, whom had emerged as a strong buyer of US beef over the past year, staying out of the US market. Remember they haven’t renewed the processors registrations and supposedly their inspection team is due to check out US facilities soon. This will continue to keep the US out of the Chinese market for the near term in my opinion. The registrations (if they occur) will likely lead to Chinese purchases in August from what I am hearing. The USDA is working with the Chines customs to try and speed up the process. Tariffs are also in the way of this process and the Chines could continue to slow walk the inspections. We’ll see!… If price trades below settlement, it could re-test support at the 8-DMA. A failure from here could see a test of support at 208.80. If price can overcome resistance at 210.975, it could approach resistance at 214.325. Resistance then comes in at 215.60.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 0.58 to 361.55 and select jumped 2.37 to 351.32. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 10.32 and the load count was 71.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 97,000, which is below last week’s 105,000 and last year’s 118,556. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 2,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 3,748. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 570,000, which is above last week’s 566,000 and below last year’s 602,136.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far Friday in all feeding regions trade has been limited on moderate to good demand. A few live purchases have been reported in the Southern Plains mostly at 220.00, however not enough for an adequate market test. The latest established market in any feeding region was on Wednesday in Nebraska with live purchases from 230.00-231.00 with dressed purchases ranging from 360.00- 370.00, mostly at 360.00. On Wednesday in the Western Cornbelt live purchases traded mostly at 230.00 with dressed purchases ranging from 360.00-365.00, mostly at 360.00 on a light test. The last established live market in Kansas was last week at 220.00. The last established live market in the Texas Panhandle was last week at mostly 220.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 218.00 – 231.00 and from 354.00 – 370.00 on a dressed basis (so far).
United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on May 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below May 1, 2024.
Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.56 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 310,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 225,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 370,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 443,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 195,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.83 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Other disappearance totaled 50,000 head during April, 11 percent below 2024.
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