For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 11, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
April Lean Hogs opened unchanged and dipped to the low of the day at 86.375. The low was just above the declining 13-DMA now at 86.225 and the 50-DMA now at 86.675. The market turned higher and rallied to the session high at 87.50. It drifted thee rest of the session and settled near the high at 87.35. The rally couldn’t take out the Thursday high and the market basically was consolidating in the upper end of Thursday’s trading range with settlement higher than Thursday’s settlement and above resistance at 87.10. The recovery in April Hogs took us back to just above the high of the breakdown candle from February 27th. That’s positive news but it is all about the tariff situation and price couldn’t break higher as we await the Mexican response to the tariffs. With Mexico the number 1 buyer of US pork, the market is anxiously waiting to hear from the Mexican President. This will key the price action next week in my opinion. President Trump delayed tariffs on Mexican goods and their willingness to keep imports of pork out of the tariff danger zone will be a critical aspect traders will be watching for. If they stay away from tariffs on pork we could continue to bounce back, but a desire to cripple their pork industry could set back Hogs again. The cash market and cutouts continue to consolidate, up some and down some, so a positive response is needed to change sentiment to the upside in my opinion. Slaughter continues lower but weights moved higher, keeping production strong. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 87.10 and then the 50-DMA and 13-DMAs. A breakdown from here could see price test support at 85.325. If price can overcome the Thursday high, it could test resistance at 88.325. Resistance is next at the declining 21-DMA at 88.675. A rally past here could see price test resistance at 90.40.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 97.86 as of 03/06/2025.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 90.18 as of 03/05/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 485,000, which is above last week’s 480,000 and last year’s 441,321. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 116,000, which is above last week’s 100,000 and last year’s 105,876. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,418,000, which is below last week’s 2,538,000 and last year’s 2,440,332.
April Feeder Cattle opened lower and made the session low at 274.125. The low tested the key level at 274.65 the rising 8-DMA now at 274.55( it was lower at the open and was higher at the end of the session). Price reversed course and rallied past the Thursday high and then the Wednesday high on its way to challenging resistance at 277.25 which saw a quick pullback before turning higher and rallying past resistance. It rallied to the session high at 278.75 which was just below resistance at 279.20. It dipped into the close to settle at 278.15. The rally was not about Feeder cash prices as the index was lower from the day before and was expected to fall back some more(it Did – see below). It was all about the fat cattle cash market which saw packer panic and an aggressive bidding up of cash prices. This sent traders in a bullish frenzy, taking futures to near all-time highs as the Feeder cash market was in sink mode. Futures are now trading at a premium to the cash index after trading at a discount to the index over the past weeks. It will be interesting to see how traders respond to being near all-time highs and at a premium to the cash index on Monday. The index I am being told is expected to fall back some more next week. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 277.25. Support then comes in at 274.65 and the rising 8-DMA. If settlement holds, we could test resistance at 279.20. Resistance then comes in at the all-time high for the lead contract at 279.825. We’ll see!…
The Feeder Cattle Index fell and is at 273.77 as of 03/06/2025.
April Live Cattle opened higher and made the session low at 196.40. The low tested the key level at 196.625 and the rising 50-DMA now at 196.675. It reversed and rallied almost the rest of the session to the high at 200.95. It dipped at the end of the session to settle at 200.275. The reversal in fortune came about as traders got wind of packer bids in the North of 200.00 with futures trading in the 194 handle. A frenzy started and futures took off to the races. The cash price advance caught traders flat footed and they quickly bid up futures. It was shock and awe as traders assumed the packer would remain in control of the price action with cutouts unable to trade higher and slaughter numbers expected to be small as it has for the past few weeks. So, the aggressiveness from the packer made traders play catch up. The packer took price up to 202.50 on Friday so there may be more catch up to go as traders now may assume the producer is right and the packer has slowed slaughter because the numbers just aren’t as profound as people think and have to remain aggressive to maintain their market share as we near the grilling season and keep the plants running. We’ll see!… The rally took futures to resistance 200.90. Settlement was just below it. The rally took price to just above resistance at the 61.8% retracement OF the all-time high of the lead contract at 207.725 and the March 4th low at 189.50 at 200.75. If price can’t hold settlement, it could test support at 199.10 and then the 50% retracement at 198.60. If price can take out the Friday high, we could see price test resistance at 203.50.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 1.78 to 314.90 and select increased 2.29 to 305.80. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 9.10 and the load count was 101.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 108,000, which is above last week’s 107,000 and last year’s 96,325. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 3,000, which is above last week’s 2,000 and last year’s 701. The estimated total for the week(so far) is 578,000, which is above last week’s 566,000 and below last year’s 583,995.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far for Friday in the Southern Plains, negotiated cash trading has been mostly inactive on very light demand. The last reported market was on Thursday with live FOB purchases at 197.00. In Nebraska, negotiated cash trading has been active on good demand. Compared to last week, live FOB and dressed delivered purchases traded 2.00-4.00 higher from 200.00-202.00 and 315.00- 317.00, respectively. In the Western Cornbelt, negotiated cash trading has been light with moderate demand. Compared to last week, on a light test, live FOB purchases traded 2.00-4.00 higher from 200.00-202.00. Not enough dressed delivered purchases for a market trend, last week dressed delivered purchases traded at 313.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 195.00 – 202.50 and from 310.00 – 320.00 on a dressed basis (so far).
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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