Cattle futures fell for a third straight session today following the November 20th Cattle on Feed report. It showed a small recovery by the time it settled at 154.675, down only 45 cents for the day. Based on technical analysis the low of the day hit 154.125, right at the 62% retracement level before closing above the 40 DMA indicating that there might be a small reversal in the market coming. Volume today was higher than Friday’s (as expected) but also higher than last Tuesday’s session, and in my opinion, we are going to see some more follow through selling going forward this week.
Cash live cattle prices were significantly higher last week with the 5 area weighted average price reported at $156.10, which was up from 152.65 the previous week. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter came in at 112,000 head Friday and 81,000 head Saturday. This brought the total last week to 581,000 head, which is down from 647,000 the previous week but up from 568,000 a year ago. The estimated dressed cattle weight last week was 836 pounds, up a pound from a week ago but down from 843 a year ago. Estimated beef production last week was 484.6 pounds, up from 477.4 million a year ago.
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Peter McGinn
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Walsh Trading, Inc.
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