For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays and my next webinar will be Tuesday, March 18, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
April Lean Hogs opened higher and broke down to the low of the day at 85.025. The breakdown took price below support at 85.325 and the rising 100-DMA now at 85.275. It reversed course and rallied to the session high at 87.075. The rally took price back to resistance at 87.10 and the rising 50-DMA now at 87.00. It dipped into the close and settled at 86.625. This a nice little recovery after Thursday’s weak close but all it has done is start a consolidation area between the two long-term moving averages. The cash market continues to linger and futures are potentially forming a base in the short run to see if cash can recover and rally or if the weight of the tariffs and uncertainty in the negotiations break down the cash markets. This week’s slaughter saw the total for the week surpass last year for the 1st time in a while which could weigh on price if it continues and we see a big increase in production. Demand will have to show up in exports and consumers to overtake and potential supply increases. This will be a tricky time for the industry with the fluctuations in the tariff and potential trade war with our largest trading partners. This counter balances the seasonality we are coming into with the Easter holiday and the grilling season potential for increases in price. We also have a seasonal supply pullback but as I said earlier this week’s change from lower slaughter numbers to a higher number gives one pause if we see another increase next week. This would potentially be the start of a trend of higher production. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support. A breakdown from here could see price test support at the declining 200-DMA now at 83.625. If price can overcome resistance at 87.10, it could test resistance at the declining 21-DMA now at 87.275 and then 88.325.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 97.30 as of 03/13/2025.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 89.74 as of 03/12/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 480,000, which is below last week’s 485,000 and above last year’s 440,299. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 81,000, which is below last week’s 116,000 and last year’s 122,110. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 2,515,000, which is above last week’s 2,418,000 and last year’s 2,456,991.
April Feeder Cattle opened higher and broke down to the low at 278.35. The breakdown stalled at the rising 8-DMA now at 278.40 and price rallied off the test of support the rest of the session to the high at 281.40. It settled near the high at 281.20. Solid cash fundamentals have led the Feeder Cattle to a new all-time high this week at 282.35, established on Thursday for the lead contract. It established new highs 3-days in a row culminating in the top price yesterday. The Feeder Index has raced higher this week after making the recent low last Friday at 273.77. Producers have been aggressive buying cattle as it looks like they fear they won’t be able to stay in the game if they weren’t aggressive in their pursuit. I have been told there is fear that there is a shortage of feeder weight cattle in the north as a reason for the aggressive purchases of cattle. Futures are in overbought territory in my opinion at all-time high prices and seasonally there is a down turn in cash prices. Will it happen again or will price continue higher as the Feeder Index has made another new all-time high with Friday’s print at 282.72. We’ll see!… A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 279.825 and then the rising 8-DMA. Support then comes in at the rising 13-DMA now at 276.525. If settlement holds, we could test resistance at the all-time high. Resistance then comes in at R2 at 283.40.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 282.72 as of 03/13/2025.
April Live Cattle opened higher and traded to the session low at 201.075. The breakdown to the low tested the Thursday low and support at 200.90. It reversed and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 203.35. It stopped just shy of resistance at 203.50 and settled near the high at 203.175. The session couldn’t overcome Thursday’s high or low and formed an inside candlestick. The cash market had been quiet all week and Friday was the day for trade and it didn’t disappoint the producer. The day saw price trade between 202.00 and 207.00. We will see another increase in the average price for cash which is good news for the producer. The packer once again is caught between a rock and a hard place and it seems the wait until Friday to get serious and buy cattle hasn’t worked for them most weeks. Weights have come down and the slowdown in slaughter has stopped as it has climbed the last two weeks nearing 590,000 this week. They have orders to fill and this is not 207 to 2018 when they could sit back and see the sweat on the producer as they wondered if they could get their cattle sold. Producers seem comfortable in waiting out the packer as they seem to be the ones on the run. We’ll see!… Today’s trade was more about consolidation as there was uncertainty over the cash trade. If price can’t hold settlement, it could re-test support at 200.90. Support then comes in at 199.10. If price can overcome resistance at 203.50 it could test resistance at 205.55.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 1.42 to 318.27 and select decreased 1.15 to 306.32. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 11.95 and the load count was 93.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 102,000, which is below last week’s 108,000 and last year’s 112,956. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 2,000, which is below last week’s 3,000 and last year’s 11,971. The estimated total for the week(so far) is 587,000, which is above last week’s 578,000 and below last year’s 597,391.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate to good demand in the Southern Plains. A few purchases at mostly at 202.00, however, not enough for a full market trend. The latest reported market in the Southern Plains was last week with live FOB purchases at 197.00. In Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt, negotiated cash trade was light to moderate on good demand. Live FOB purchases in both regions traded mostly 3.00-5.00 higher at 205.00, on a light test. Dressed delivered purchases in Nebraska traded 8.00-10.00 higher at 325.00. Not enough dressed delivered purchases in the Western Cornbelt for a market trend. Last week in the Western Cornbelt dressed purchases traded from 315.00-320.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 200.00 – 207.00 and from 320.00 – 330.00 on a dressed basis (so far).
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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