SOYBEANS –
Soybean planting is at 76% as of 5/25, up 10% over last week. Planting is well ahead of schedule with the 10-year average for this time of year being 63%. The national crop was 50% emerged, ahead of the average at 40%.
May saw above-normal rainfall in the South and East Coast with total drought coverage for the whole U.S. decreasing from ~37% to 31%. Parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota were abnormally dry in May. Drought is likely to persist in Northern Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, and in most of Nebraska in June. Forecasts for June favor drier weather across the country with temperatures leaning above normal for major soybean growing areas. The South is expected see above-normal rainfall in the coming weeks along with below normal temperatures. The wetness down south could shift some soybean acreage to corn. President Trump is expected to speak with China’s Xi this week, any positive trade deal developments could help the grains. A soybean rally in the near-term would be an opportunity to get hedged.
Soybean crush came out yesterday. NASS soybean crush for April was 202.38 million bushels, the pre-report estimate was 202.0. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.976 billion pounds compared to the average guess of 2.150. Soybean oil stocks are also below last year’s supply at this time of year at 2.311 bp.
For the week ending May 29, soybean sales were 268k mt. Cumulative soybean sales have reached 88% of the USDA forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year. The 5-year average is 86%.
Looking at technicals for July soybeans, support is at 1028, resistance is 1046.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1045 (+4), high of 1053, low of 1037. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1025 (+3). Cash price is at 1025 (+7)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 300.5 (+2.5) high of 302.1, low of 297.7
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 46.81 (unchanged) high of 47.42, low of 46.43
The July Meal to Oil ratio (55.94% Meal – 44.06% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1042) 5-day, (1053) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1050) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1025) 5-day, (1038) 20-day, (1027) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (295.6 5-day, (294.8) 20-day, (297.3) 50-day, (305.3) 100-day, (311.9) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (47.04) 5-day, (48.86) 20-day, (48.05) 50-day, (46.65) 100-day, (44.76) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 24,043 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 36,697 contracts. CIT traders were net long 160,842 contracts after increasing their already long position by 2,973 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -2,309 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,564 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 55,242.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed meal Managed Money traders bought 13,681 contracts, moving to a net short position of -93,785 contracts. CIT traders were net long 74,519 contracts after decreasing their long position by -1,671 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -83,092 contracts after increasing their long position by 14,444 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 53,104 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 20th showed Managed Money traders were net long 53,988 contracts after selling -3,321 contracts. CIT traders were net long 130,813 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders bought 1,144 contracts, to a net with a total of 2,077 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 67,989 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 438 (+0.25), high of 446, low of 437. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 443 (+5). Cash price is 448 (-1)
Potential hot and dry weather out West and a possible trade deal update between the U.S. and China could have a bullish effect on this market. Trump and Xi are expected to talk this week. With further wet weather coming to southern states this June some soybean acreage could shift from soybeans to corn.
Ethanol production for the week ending May 30 averaged 1.105 mb, which is a record for this point in the year. Ethanol production is up 4.6% over last week and up 3.1% over last year. Ethanol stocks also made a high for this point in the year at 23.636 mb compared to the 5-year average at 22.340 mb. Corn use will need to average 98.77 mb to meet the USDA forecast of 5.5 bb.
Exports for the week ending May 29 were 1.57m mt. Cumulative sales are at 73.6% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Ethanol average daily production for the week ending May 23rd averaged 1.056 mb, up 1.9% over last week. Ethanol production is still down 1.1% from last year, but up 0.8% over last April. Ethanol’s five-year average is 0.976 mb per day. Corn use for the week was estimated at 106.54 mb. The average daily production needs to be 99.66 mb per week to reach the USDA’s marketing year forecast at 5.500 bb.
Support on Dec corn 425, 436, Resistance 444, 448, 468 in July corn.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (441) 5-day, (448) 20-day, (464) 50-day, (477) 100-day, (462) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (443) 20-day, (448) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,450, bringing their net position to -100,760 contracts. CIT traders increased their net long position by 13,396 contracts to a long position of 326,490 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders sold -26,359 contracts, to a net short position of -216,158 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -115,683.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 543 (+7), with a high of 547, low of 533. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 557 (+6). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 537 (-3). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 540 (+3). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 623 (+5)
Wheat traded higher again today in all three contracts. Weather problems continue to have an impact on the China and Russia. China is turning to other countries for exports including Australian wheat and Russian wheat flour, suggesting a lack of confidence in its own crop conditions.
Winter wheat conditions rose to 52% on Monday, up from 50% on the last report and 49% last year. Ukraine grain harvest is expected to fall 10% y/oy due to the war and weather pressure. Managed money still holds a large short position, so short covering is still possible with a move higher in the wheat market.
Exports for the week ending May 30 were 582k. Cumulative sales are 22.5% of the USDA’s forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year. The 5-year average is 14.2%. Sales need to average 254k mt per week to reach the USDA forecast.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (537) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (54) 50-day, (562) 100-day, (578) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (551) 5-day, (547) 20-day, (556) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (591) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (528) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (574) 100-day, (583) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (622) 5-day, (599) 20-day, (605) 50-day, (615) 100-day, (626) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 30th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -101,226 contracts, having decreased their short position by 7,667 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 37,117 contracts, decreasing their long position by -1,954 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short -94,165 contracts after net buying 5,124 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -99,257.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com