Bean basis levels slipping still suggests the abundance of the 2018/2019 crop and spreads might stay on the defensive with first notice day against the November contract approaching……….Also, harvest is approaching the final 40% and space issues might keep the market from sustaining any strength………………………………………Not a lot of fresh bull news to entice end users to step up and take more coverage……………………………………………….. After we wrap up harvest in the States it’s time to look down to Brazil as we’re in the gut slot of planting……………………………And then there’s the hope of reaching a deal with China as we get into the G-20 meetings at the end of November……………………..
Wheat seeding might be reported by the USDA, on Monday afternoon, to be vibrating near 75% complete………….World wheat stocks are still projected to be on the low end of historic values by the USDA and any problems developing in Argentina and/or Australia with harvest in the next few months could generate renewed enthusiasm in our markets………………..The world is still concerned with quality issues in the Black Sea as well as the dry weather in Europe which is not helping the stand before dormancy sets in………………………We still sense that there’s more upside potential than downside risk in the wheat market yet, there’s no urgency to reach for stocks as the Great Lakes close in mid December and all the Toledo stocks are anticipated stay iced in through March…………………Excitement is potentially starting in early Spring…………………………………
There’s still a lot of corn to harvest and if space remains tight things might get nasty with forced selling in the final stages………………..And, it might not happen yet, there’s no urgency to step up right now……………………………We need to feed the bull to push CZ above 380 and there’s nothing here to excite us right now……………………………………End users might be willing to pounce on the market on dips sub 360 CZ while producers are starting to show interest in selling some 2019 production above $4.10 December 2019(CT). It appears that we’re settling in for a long winters nap…………………..
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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