We might be setting the stage for a weather move to the upside as we’ll be looking at rainfall totals and river levels Sunday night and Monday morning. Corn acreage loss from non planting and potential replanting is probable and we’re getting to the point in wheat areas where too much moisture causes more headaches than help. Funds are still very short and farmers are still very long yet, production problems will make them less long and more determined to wait for higher prices. Spreads may widen in corn as December and forward gain on production fears. Wheat spreads may firm as production and quality issues may make taking delivery of vomitoxin stocks and railing it down to the Southeast poultry market a viable consideration and/or taking delivery of real milling quality wheat if basis levels command it with quality concerns. Kansas City wheat is still unnaturally below Chicago and close to parity with corn in the Central Plains. The world may be comfortable with wheat stocks right now yet, this can change quickly! The only constant is that there are beans forever and ever, Amen! Trade war and tariff talks are being presented as the major reasons behind the price slide in grains this past year and the administration is expected to combat this with an aid package which might be similar to the one given last year. If so, more bean acres which might lead to another carryover increase. The Blob gets bigger!
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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