Does world grain demand really slip that much sans a trade deal with China? We haven’t seen soybeans this low since the Fed got rolling with quantitative easing back in 2009. Demand is still here but the helicopter money isn’t! Central banks appear to have run out of ink! Regardless, it’s not pleasant in the agricultural world with prices near the lows in a decade. We might get a short covering rally on supply concerns this Summer with new crop problems but, spreads could remain sloppy and soft as old crop stocks, world and domestic, are still abundant.
The USDA gives us something to talk about tomorrow at 11 Chicago time. We always preach the Gospel of going into reports as even and open minded as possible as surprises happen! It is risky! Winter wheat yield and production is the key number and the powers that be will also release their opinion on domestic and world supply and demand. Please recall that in the past year the USDA surprised us with a very bearish corn stocks figure and incorporated” tweakage” in the world numbers when they included Chinese census number.
Weather is still the critical element in grains and things are still not perfect in the States or the World. Funds are short with a big edge and farmers are long with a nasty attitude.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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