Soybeans–
Soybeans finished the day close to unchanged, after trading 2 1/2 cents higher in the overnight session. There could be some news ahead regarding a trade deal with India. India is seeking US soybeans for soybean oil and animal feed. Brazil planting is moving ahead of schedule with the drier weather they’ve been having. Planting in Brazil is now at 9.15% complete, compared to the average pace this time of year at 6.10%. The funds will likely go risk off with the lack of government data due to the shutdown in DC. Since the 1920’s China has bought on average 50% of the US soybean crop, however no sales have been made to China this year due to the trade war. President Trump is expected to meet with Xi in 4 weeks, hopefully a deal can completed then.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1017 (-0.25), high of 1023, low of 1014. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1035 (-1), high of 1042, low of 1033. Cash price is at 975 (-5)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 277.1 (-1.5) high of 279.1, low of 276.5
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 50.38 (+0.33) high of 50.60, low of 49.90
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.38% Meal – 47.62% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1014) 5-day, (1023) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1028) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1033) 5-day, (1043) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (276.4) 5-day, (280.8) 20-day, (284.6) 50-day, (290.6) 100-day, (302.6) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.16) 5-day, (50.73) 20-day, (52.30) 50-day, (52.18) 100-day, (48.64) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 421 (+2), high of 422, low of 417. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 438 (+2). Cash price is 408 (-2)
Corn traded 2 3/4 cents higher, after trading 1 cent higher in the overnight session. The eastern Corn Belt is expected to stay mostly dry for the next two weeks, while the western Corn Belt is expected to see rain. Weather for the next 2 weeks is expected to be above seasonal averages. A trade deal with India may be getting closer. India is reportedly seeking US corn for ethanol. Harvest pace is expected to pick up over the next couple of weeks, and the market should see the highest level of harvest pressure over this time period. Technical trading and weather should be the main drivers for prices with the government shutdown.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (418) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (423) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (435) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 512 (-2), with a high of 518, low of 512. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 530 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 477(+1). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 495 (-1).
Wheat traded 2 cents lower, after trading 1 1/4 cents higher in the overnight session. It will be interesting to see if wheat changes direction during the government shutdown as fund positioning will not be reported. At some point the wheat market should price in these large crops around the world. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has wheat conditions in Argentina at 93% good/excellent, compared to last year at this time at 35% good/excellent. SovEcon has Russian wheat exports at 5 mt for October, compared to 4.6 mt in September. The war in Russia seems to heating up, which could offer some mild support to wheat.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (512) 5-day, (519) 20-day, (526) 50-day, (549) 100-day, (575) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (530) 5-day, (537) 20-day, (544) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (593) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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