The beans were under pressure yet again. The concern over the tariff situation continues. There are only 12 short hours till the implementation. Will someone blink. The psychology of this is the meaningful aspect. If the tariffs are put in place it will still be 2-3 months before they are finalized. It is still my belief that the actual implementation will not take place. There are some considerations here. The US is seeing global interest now in the soy as the price is now a discount to Brazil. The Chinese can cut us out only so long given the Argentinian crop. This crop year they ( China ) will need our beans. At present, if there is an 11th hour deal the market will or could have a significant relief rally. I am not making a prediction, I am saying if. There exists a lot of risk all around at present. For those flat price short a defensive posture into tomorrow is advisable.
The Corn in my opinion is cheap. The global weather concerns persist. The feed grain concerns in general will continue to put the US in a favorable export scenario. There are some verbal indications that the President is close to cutting a deal on NAFTA. This would be a big win for the market and a rally may be forthcoming if that transpires. Again, I say if. The one negative for corn has been the weather and crop ratings. They continue to show real promise with most private analysts expecting a bump in yield. While I agree with the sentiment there, I also know it is a long road to the finish line. Mother nature usually levels things out. My point is we can’t count the bushels till they are in the bin. Anything is still possible.
” TO DARE IS TO LOOSE ONES FOOTING MOMENTARILY, TO DARE NOT IS TO LOOSE ONES SELF ” SOREN KIERKEGAARD
BE WELL