AG TIME – The Ups and Downs

John WalshGeneral Commentary, Grains

The beans and meal were up sharply early. The why, in my opinion, the Argentinian country is essentially on strike. Transport in the mix. This is not unusual and typically lasts for a relatively short period. Getting back to the reality of the market. The Argentinian is buying US beans at will. They will either mark them up and sell them to China and whomever or crush them at a tremendous profit and sell the protein. No protein shortage. To the contrary, we will soon be swimming in protein. The Black Sea oil seed crops, just fine. Growing. This equates to more feed. There was another African swine flu outbreak yesterday, in yet another province. This was a small facility. It seems logical that it is only a matter of time until a large operation witnesses an outbreak. The breeding stock year on year in China is estimated down 4.8%. Why is this not a key article? I have no credible answer. A thought – the producer of animals, in my opinion, should be hand to mouth for feed needs. It is my belief meal will enter a protracted down period. The US harvest is rolling. The pace is swift in spite of some moisture. The available beans could be a catalyst.

The corn rallied again today. There was a large purchase by Mexico today. The US is in the cat bird seat for some months as the cheapest supplier in the world. The next key to watch will be the South American weather. At present, there are not any issues. It is my belief the corn is due a rally without a weather issue. The height could be determined by the global outlook. Can the global stocks rebound?

The landscape is fast and loose. The risk is high. To discuss any long term thoughts please call 312 208 8837 or jwalsh@walshtrading.com

” A COWARD DIES MANY TIMES BEFORE THEIR ACTUAL DEATH ”     JULIUS CAESAR

BE WELL

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as an Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (WTI) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.