The talk of the US and China talking is supporting beans. this is a selling opportunity in my opinion. Look at sales anywhere close to 900 basis jan. The nov 19 above 920 presents opportunity. Private analysts are now estimating next years bean acres to drop in a large way. The carry is still projected record large. The USDA baseline long term now predicts a declining carry increasing demand for 5 years. This in my opinion make little sense and offers no real trading opportunity. The acreage come this spring will be dependant on if corn rallies back towards $4.00 old crop. Then bean acres could come down. The reality bearish markets ahead without a major change. The crush has fallen fast. My thoughts here at this moment have been correct. There should be more to come over time. The Brazilian planting pace remains lightening fast. January exports are expected. The large bean production will keep the crush rolling. The global oilseed demand is good. However, so is supply. Prices are not going torally significantly at any time.
The corn finding a bid. Private analysts predicting a lower crop. A lower carry into the new year. This could support prices here. The baseline projections increase long term acreage, but also long term demand. The corn is the market I believe may have more upside. The wheat cant really get going. The outside influences are not assisting at the present moment.
To discuss opportunitie please cal 312 208 8837 jwalsh@walshtrading.com
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