The markets in general (row crop) witnessed some strength. Nothing goes straight up or down. The bean market was due a bit of a bounce in my opinion. The sales remain strong given the discounts to South America. In addition, as I mentioned yesterday, the Argentinian currency situation and the Brazilian sales to date may force the Chinese back to US beans. This would be welcome and perhaps gives a bit more rally. My long term approach remains the same. Given the supplies, the current basis levels, deep discounts. The rallies are selling opportunities. The market next week will watch the African swine flu in China. This is important. A 5th case found. Sonny Perdue, the US Ag Secretary has stated he believes the problem there is worse than the media is letting on. In addition, the Sept 12th report will be a driving force into the fall. Let’s see what the weekend brings.
The Corn finally is getting a pulse. There are many positives to build off of. The e15 mandate changing to year round would be nice. The Sept 12th report will be anticipated. The yield is important. The US is the cheap feedgrain and will continue to be for a certain window. My thought is 6-9 months, until we see the South American crop. Will Russia ban wheat exports? This is a question and feed grain supportive. The point is there are feedgrain concerns globally. What happens in the US will be a driving force to price through the fall.
Thank you to anyone who has sent emails. I always appreciate the thoughts. There are many moving parts today. Much risk.
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